Felgueiras 1932 vs Fafe Prediction & Betting Tips 18/10/2026

Felgueiras 1932 vs Fafe preview

In the Taça de Portugal match between Felgueiras 1932 and Fafe, the 1X2 probabilities show Felgueiras 1932 at 29%, while both a draw and Fafe are at 36%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 0-1, with a 15% chance. Felgueiras 1932 has an expected goals value of 0.83 compared to Fafe's 0.96, indicating a slight edge for Fafe in attacking potential.

Despite the probabilities, there are factors that could alter the outcome. Felgueiras 1932's recent form shows a mixed bag with 2 wins in their last 6 matches, while Fafe has been more consistent, winning 4 of their last 6 games. The lower likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 27% suggests a tight match, but both teams to score stands at 36%, indicating the potential for goals from both sides.

Felgueiras 1932 vs Fafe: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Felgueiras 1932	Draw	Fafe
Model	29%	36%	36%
Market	—	—	—
Published	29%	36%	36%
Edge	—	—	—

Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Felgueiras 1932 and Fafe expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.83Felgueiras 1932

0.96Fafe

Total expected goals: 1.79
Attack rating (Felgueiras 1932 / Fafe): 0.82 / 0.98
Defence rating (Felgueiras 1932 / Fafe): 0.65 / 0.59

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Felgueiras 1932 vs Fafe score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 18.1% 14.7% 7.7% 2.5% 0.7% 1 12.5% 14.6% 6.4% 2.0% 0.6% 2 5.7% 5.5% 2.6% 0.8% 0.2% 3 1.6% 1.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 4+ 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Felgueiras 1932 goals. Columns: Fafe goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Felgueiras 1932 vs Fafe goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 82%

Over 1.5 55%

Over 2.5 27%

Over 3.5 11%

Both teams to score: 36%
No goals (0–0): 18%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Felgueiras 1932 vs Fafe

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Felgueiras 1932	29%	3.49
	Draw	36%	2.81
	Fafe	36%	2.79
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	27%	3.76
	Under 2.5	73%	1.36
Both teams to score	Yes	36%	2.77
	No	64%	1.56
Double chance	1X (Felgueiras 1932 or draw)	64%	1.56
	12 (either side)	64%	1.55
	X2 (draw or Fafe)	71%	1.40
Handicap -1	Fafe win by 2+	14%	7.25
	Push (exactly one goal)	22%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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