Updated

Segunda Liga · Matchday 7

Benfica B vs Felgueiras 1932

· Caixa Futebol Campus, Lisbon· Referee Pedro Miguel Torres Ramalho

Full time1 – 0

Alin prediction was Benfica B to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 0

11% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Benfica BDrawFelgueiras 1932

Benfica B vs Felgueiras 1932: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceBenfica BDrawFelgueiras 1932
Model27%33%40%
Market40%29%31%
Published37%30%34%
Edge-3%+1%+2%
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Benfica B vs Felgueiras 1932 odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Benfica B, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-07.

Opened 2.10Now 2.30 +0.20
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Benfica B2.102.30+0.20
Draw3.243.20-0.04
Felgueiras 19323.302.92-0.38

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Benfica B and Felgueiras 1932 expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.86Benfica B
1.12Felgueiras 1932
Total expected goals
1.97
Attack rating (Benfica B / Felgueiras 1932)
0.87 / 1.01
Defence rating (Benfica B / Felgueiras 1932)
0.95 / 0.79

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Benfica B vs Felgueiras 1932 score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 15.2% 14.2% 8.6% 3.2% 1.1% 1 10.6% 14.6% 7.4% 2.8% 1.0% 2 5.1% 5.7% 3.2% 1.2% 0.4% 3 1.5% 1.6% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 4+ 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Benfica B goals. Columns: Felgueiras 1932 goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Benfica B vs Felgueiras 1932 goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 85%
Over 1.5 60%
Over 2.5 32%
Over 3.5 14%
Both teams to score
40%
No goals (0–0)
15%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Benfica B vs Felgueiras 1932

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Benfica B37%2.74
Draw30%3.35
Felgueiras 193234%2.98
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.532%3.16
Under 2.568%1.46
Both teams to scoreYes40%2.50
No60%1.67
Double chance1X (Benfica B or draw)66%1.51
12 (either side)70%1.43
X2 (draw or Felgueiras 1932)63%1.58
Handicap -1Benfica B win by 2+9%10.79
Push (exactly one goal)17%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Benfica B and Felgueiras 1932 recent form

Benfica B 3W 1D 2L
Felgueiras 1932 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Benfica B at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-1
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
0.67
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
1 of 3
  • They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They average 1.7 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.
  • 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Felgueiras 1932 away

Record (W-D-L)
0-2-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.33
Goals against / match
0.67
Clean sheets
1 of 3
  • They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.

League matches this season before kick-off: Benfica B at home only, Felgueiras 1932 away only.

Expected lineups

Benfica B lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 50 Diogo Ferreira
  2. 62 J. Neto
  3. 33 Gabriel Indio
  4. 55 João Carvalho Fonseca
  5. 78 D. Soares
  6. 60 Nuno Félix
  7. 76 R. Quintas
  8. 74 O. Tome
  9. 72 A. Cabral
  10. 77 Gonçalo Carvalho Moreira

Bench: João Capucho, Felipe Lima, F. Coletta, T. Soares, Stevan Manuel, Martim Maria Ferreira, Francisco Silva, Rui Silva

Felgueiras 1932 lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 14 Mateus Pasinato
  2. 23 Afonso de Freitas
  3. 15 Armando Lopes
  4. 3 João Pinto
  5. 70 B. Ouacharaf
  6. 77 Francisco França
  7. 20 Rodrigo Santos Ribeiro
  8. 19 Lucas da Costa Duarte
  9. 7 Mario Rivas

Bench: Afonso Peixoto, Tiago Rafael Fernandes Leiite, Michel Costa, Filipe Cruz, Felipe Scheibig, Nuno Namora

Benfica B vs Felgueiras 1932 head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Benfica B 2 · draws 1 · Felgueiras 1932 1.

Benfica BDrawsFelgueiras 1932
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-02-14Benfica B4-2Felgueiras 1932Segunda Liga
2025-09-13Felgueiras 19322-1Benfica BSegunda Liga
2025-05-04Felgueiras 19323-3Benfica BSegunda Liga
2024-12-22Benfica B2-0Felgueiras 1932Segunda Liga

Other Matchday 7 fixtures

Before and after this match