Updated

Segunda Liga · Matchday 7

Leixoes vs FC Porto B

· Estadio do Mar, Matosinhos· Referee Jose Bessa

Full time1 – 2

Alin prediction was Leixoes to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 0

13% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
LeixoesDrawFC Porto B

Leixoes vs FC Porto B: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceLeixoesDrawFC Porto B
Model74%18%8%
Market59%24%17%
Published63%22%15%
Edge+4%-1%-2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.38 vs 0.70.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Leixoes below our published probability: +3.6 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Leixoes vs FC Porto B odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Leixoes, 13 snapshots since 2026-10-04.

Opened 1.55Now 1.55 +0.00
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Leixoes1.551.55+0.00
Draw3.903.92+0.02
FC Porto B5.535.43-0.10

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Leixoes and FC Porto B expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.38Leixoes
0.70FC Porto B
Total expected goals
3.08
Attack rating (Leixoes / FC Porto B)
1.46 / 0.78
Defence rating (Leixoes / FC Porto B)
0.78 / 1.29

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Leixoes vs FC Porto B score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.4% 2.5% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 1 10.2% 8.4% 2.7% 0.6% 0.1% 2 13.0% 9.1% 3.2% 0.7% 0.2% 3 10.3% 7.2% 2.5% 0.6% 0.1% 4+ 10.7% 7.5% 2.6% 0.6% 0.1%

Rows: Leixoes goals. Columns: FC Porto B goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Leixoes vs FC Porto B goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 82%
Over 2.5 59%
Over 3.5 37%
Both teams to score
46%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Leixoes vs FC Porto B

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Leixoes63%1.58
Draw22%4.53
FC Porto B15%6.74
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.559%1.68
Under 2.541%2.46
Both teams to scoreYes46%2.15
No54%1.87
Double chance1X (Leixoes or draw)85%1.17
12 (either side)78%1.28
X2 (draw or FC Porto B)37%2.71
Handicap -1Leixoes win by 2+52%1.93
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Leixoes and FC Porto B recent form

Leixoes 4W 1D 1L
FC Porto B 1W 1D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Leixoes at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-1
Win rate
67%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
1.67
Clean sheets
1 of 3
  • They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
  • 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

FC Porto B away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-2
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
0.33
Goals against / match
1.67
Clean sheets
1 of 3
  • They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
  • They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
  • 48% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Leixoes at home only, FC Porto B away only.

Expected lineups

Leixoes lineup · 4-1-3-2

  1. 51 I. Stefanović
  2. 15 Simãozinho
  3. 4 Matheus Costa
  4. 63 H. Faria
  5. 77 Paulinho
  6. 6 A. Balde
  7. 22 Cláudio Vítor Rodrigues Araújo
  8. 7 Salvador Agra
  9. 8 Miguel Sousa
  10. 9 Bica
  11. 33 Luccas Feitosa

Bench: Fernando Fonseca, Lourenço Henriques, Alysson Silva, Arthur Baggio, Caio Secco, Serif Nhaga, B. Rochez, S. Commey, Kaique, João Assunção

FC Porto B lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 91 Gonçalo Ribeiro
  2. 55 Y. Pereira
  3. 93 Tiago Ferreira
  4. 64 Luís Gomes
  5. 66 Bernardo Lima
  6. 92 João Pedro Moreira Teixeira
  7. 56 Kauê
  8. 89 Mateus Mide
  9. 97 Gabriel Veron
  10. 53 E. Ferreira

Bench: G. Silva, T. Melnichenko, Cardoso Varela, António Ribeiro, Duarte Cunha, T. Silva, Eirik Granaas, Martim Cunha, Anhá Candé

Leixoes vs FC Porto B head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Leixoes 4 · draws 2 · FC Porto B 4.

LeixoesDrawsFC Porto B
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-20FC Porto B0-3LeixoesSegunda Liga
2025-12-06Leixoes2-4FC Porto BSegunda Liga
2025-03-16FC Porto B0-1LeixoesSegunda Liga
2024-10-27Leixoes3-0FC Porto BSegunda Liga
2024-02-24FC Porto B0-2LeixoesSegunda Liga
2023-10-01Leixoes1-3FC Porto BSegunda Liga
2023-03-19FC Porto B4-0LeixoesSegunda Liga
2022-10-08Leixoes0-0FC Porto BSegunda Liga
2022-04-16Leixoes0-0FC Porto BSegunda Liga
2021-12-04FC Porto B1-0LeixoesSegunda Liga

Other Matchday 7 fixtures

Before and after this match