Leixoes vs FC Porto B: model vs market
| Source | Leixoes | Draw | FC Porto B |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 74% | 18% | 8% |
| Market | 60% | 24% | 17% |
| Published | 63% | 22% | 15% |
| Edge | +14% | -6% | -8% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.38 vs 0.70.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Leixoes below the model: +14.3 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.60, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Leixoes vs FC Porto B odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Leixoes, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leixoes | 1.55 | 1.54 | -0.01 |
| Draw | 3.90 | 3.88 | -0.02 |
| FC Porto B | 5.53 | 5.50 | -0.03 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Leixoes and FC Porto B expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.08
- Attack rating (Leixoes / FC Porto B)
- 1.46 / 0.78
- Defence rating (Leixoes / FC Porto B)
- 0.78 / 1.29
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Leixoes vs FC Porto B score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Leixoes goals. Columns: FC Porto B goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Leixoes vs FC Porto B goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 46%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Leixoes vs FC Porto B
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Leixoes | 63% | 1.58 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.52 | |
| FC Porto B | 15% | 6.86 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59% | 1.68 |
| Under 2.5 | 41% | 2.46 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46% | 2.15 |
| No | 54% | 1.87 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Leixoes or draw) | 85% | 1.17 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.28 | |
| X2 (draw or FC Porto B) | 37% | 2.72 | |
| Handicap -1 | Leixoes win by 2+ | 52% | 1.93 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Leixoes and FC Porto B recent form
Leixoes
4W 1D 1L
FC Porto B
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Leixoes at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FC Porto B away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 0.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.4 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 5 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Leixoes at home only, FC Porto B away only.
Leixoes vs FC Porto B head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Leixoes 1 · draws 0 · FC Porto B 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-20 | FC Porto B | 0-3 | Leixoes | Segunda Liga |
| 2025-12-06 | Leixoes | 2-4 | FC Porto B | Segunda Liga |
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