FC Porto B vs União de Leiria preview
In the fixture between FC Porto B and União de Leiria, the 1X2 probabilities show União de Leiria at 50%, while FC Porto B sits at 24%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which aligns with União de Leiria's higher expected goals of 1.75 compared to FC Porto B's 1.17.
Both teams to score has a probability of 58%, and Over 2.5 goals stands at 56%. However, FC Porto B's recent form of W-D-L-L-W-L indicates inconsistency, which could affect their performance. Meanwhile, União de Leiria's recent form of W-L-W-D-W-W suggests they are in better shape.
FC Porto B vs União de Leiria: model vs market
| Source | FC Porto B | Draw | União de Leiria |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 24% | 26% | 50% |
| Market | 25% | 27% | 48% |
| Published | 25% | 27% | 49% |
| Edge | 0% | 0% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.75 vs 1.17.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.99, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.1% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
FC Porto B vs União de Leiria odds movement
Median bookmaker price on União de Leiria, 11 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto B | 3.45 | 3.70 | +0.25 |
| Draw | 3.40 | 3.44 | +0.04 |
| União de Leiria | 1.99 | 1.91 | -0.08 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
FC Porto B and União de Leiria expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.92
- Attack rating (FC Porto B / União de Leiria)
- 0.88 / 1.19
- Defence rating (FC Porto B / União de Leiria)
- 1.26 / 1.06
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FC Porto B vs União de Leiria score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FC Porto B goals. Columns: União de Leiria goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FC Porto B vs União de Leiria goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 58%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FC Porto B vs União de Leiria
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Porto B | 25% | 4.04 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.77 | |
| União de Leiria | 49% | 2.05 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56% | 1.79 |
| Under 2.5 | 44% | 2.27 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58% | 1.72 |
| No | 42% | 2.39 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FC Porto B or draw) | 51% | 1.95 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or União de Leiria) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| Handicap -1 | União de Leiria win by 2+ | 28% | 3.58 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
FC Porto B and União de Leiria recent form
FC Porto B
2W 1D 3L
União de Leiria
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FC Porto B at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
- 48% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
União de Leiria away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.3 at home.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: FC Porto B at home only, União de Leiria away only.
FC Porto B vs União de Leiria head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: FC Porto B 0 · draws 1 · União de Leiria 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-15 | União de Leiria | 2-2 | FC Porto B | Segunda Liga |
| 2025-09-14 | FC Porto B | 1-2 | União de Leiria | Segunda Liga |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Chaves vs Vizela — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- Academica v Leixoes — match page 2026-10-24
- Sporting CP B vs Portimonense 2026-10-24
- Feirense v Benfica B — match page 2026-10-24
- Farense vs Penafiel 2026-10-24
- AVS vs Tondela 2026-10-25
- Felgueiras 1932 v Lusitânia Lourosa — match page 2026-10-25
- Torreense vs Amarante — team news & stats 2026-10-26
Before and after this match
- FC Porto B, previous: Leixoes – FC Porto B, 2026-10-10
- União de Leiria, previous: União de Leiria v Bragança analysis