Farense vs Penafiel preview
In the Segunda Liga fixture between Farense and Penafiel, the 1X2 probabilities show Farense at 50% to win, while Penafiel sits at 22%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 12% likelihood according to our model.
Farense has a recent form of W-W-W-W-D-L, while Penafiel has L-L-W-W-W-W. Both teams to score stands at 49%, suggesting a close match, but the recent strong performance of Farense could lead to a low-scoring game. The expected goals indicate Farense at 1.67 and Penafiel at 0.90, which supports the prediction of a narrow win for the home side.
Farense vs Penafiel: model vs market
| Source | Farense | Draw | Penafiel |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55% | 27% | 19% |
| Market | 47% | 28% | 25% |
| Published | 49% | 28% | 23% |
| Edge | +2% | 0% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.67 vs 0.90.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.01, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -1.2% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Farense vs Penafiel odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Farense, 13 snapshots since 2026-10-17.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Farense | 1.89 | 1.95 | +0.06 |
| Draw | 3.30 | 3.29 | -0.01 |
| Penafiel | 3.90 | 3.75 | -0.15 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Farense and Penafiel expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.57
- Attack rating (Farense / Penafiel)
- 1.31 / 1.35
- Defence rating (Farense / Penafiel)
- 0.57 / 1.02
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Farense vs Penafiel score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Farense goals. Columns: Penafiel goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Farense vs Penafiel goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 49%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Farense vs Penafiel
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Farense | 49% | 2.04 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.61 | |
| Penafiel | 23% | 4.31 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47% | 2.11 |
| Under 2.5 | 53% | 1.90 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49% | 2.03 |
| No | 51% | 1.97 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Farense or draw) | 77% | 1.30 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Penafiel) | 51% | 1.97 | |
| Handicap -1 | Farense win by 2+ | 31% | 3.27 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Farense and Penafiel recent form
Farense
4W 1D 1L
Penafiel
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Farense at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-0
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 2.25
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Penafiel away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Farense at home only, Penafiel away only.
Farense vs Penafiel head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Farense 0 · draws 2 · Penafiel 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-07 | Penafiel | 1-1 | Farense | Segunda Liga |
| 2025-10-26 | Farense | 0-0 | Penafiel | Segunda Liga |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Chaves vs Vizela — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- Academica v Leixoes — match page 2026-10-24
- Sporting CP B vs Portimonense 2026-10-24
- Feirense v Benfica B — match page 2026-10-24
- AVS vs Tondela 2026-10-25
- Felgueiras 1932 v Lusitânia Lourosa — match page 2026-10-25
- FC Porto B vs União de Leiria — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Torreense vs Amarante — team news & stats 2026-10-26
Before and after this match
- Farense, previous: Farense – AD Marco 09, 2026-10-17
- Penafiel, previous: Penafiel v Leça analysis