Felgueiras 1932 vs Lusitânia Lourosa preview
Felgueiras 1932 faces Lusitânia Lourosa with a 35% chance of winning compared to 33% for Lusitânia Lourosa and 32% for a draw. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which occurs 11% of the time according to our model. Felgueiras 1932 has an expected goals figure of 0.98, while Lusitânia Lourosa has a higher expected goals of 1.10.
Felgueiras 1932's recent form shows 3 wins and 3 losses, while Lusitânia Lourosa is on a strong run with 6 consecutive matches without a loss. The probability for Over 2.5 goals is 35%, and both teams to score stands at 43%. These figures suggest that while Felgueiras may struggle to score, Lusitânia's form could lead to a different outcome.
Felgueiras 1932 vs Lusitânia Lourosa: model vs market
| Source | Felgueiras 1932 | Draw | Lusitânia Lourosa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31% | 33% | 37% |
| Market | 37% | 31% | 31% |
| Published | 36% | 32% | 33% |
| Edge | -2% | 0% | +1% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.50, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -11.0% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Felgueiras 1932 vs Lusitânia Lourosa odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Felgueiras 1932, 9 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Felgueiras 1932 | 2.50 | 2.47 | -0.03 |
| Draw | 2.92 | 2.93 | +0.01 |
| Lusitânia Lourosa | 2.91 | 2.94 | +0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Felgueiras 1932 and Lusitânia Lourosa expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.08
- Attack rating (Felgueiras 1932 / Lusitânia Lourosa)
- 0.93 / 1.32
- Defence rating (Felgueiras 1932 / Lusitânia Lourosa)
- 0.72 / 0.85
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Felgueiras 1932 vs Lusitânia Lourosa score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Felgueiras 1932 goals. Columns: Lusitânia Lourosa goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Felgueiras 1932 vs Lusitânia Lourosa goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 43%
- No goals (0–0)
- 14%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Felgueiras 1932 vs Lusitânia Lourosa
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Felgueiras 1932 | 36% | 2.81 |
| Draw | 32% | 3.15 | |
| Lusitânia Lourosa | 33% | 3.06 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 35% | 2.90 |
| Under 2.5 | 65% | 1.53 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43% | 2.32 |
| No | 57% | 1.76 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Felgueiras 1932 or draw) | 67% | 1.49 |
| 12 (either side) | 68% | 1.46 | |
| X2 (draw or Lusitânia Lourosa) | 64% | 1.55 | |
| Handicap -1 | Felgueiras 1932 win by 2+ | 12% | 8.48 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Felgueiras 1932 and Lusitânia Lourosa recent form
Felgueiras 1932
3W 0D 3L
Lusitânia Lourosa
5W 1D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Felgueiras 1932 at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
Lusitânia Lourosa away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 5 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Felgueiras 1932 at home only, Lusitânia Lourosa away only.
Felgueiras 1932 vs Lusitânia Lourosa head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Felgueiras 1932 1 · draws 0 · Lusitânia Lourosa 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-07 | Lusitânia Lourosa | 2-1 | Felgueiras 1932 | Segunda Liga |
| 2025-08-30 | Felgueiras 1932 | 3-1 | Lusitânia Lourosa | Segunda Liga |
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Before and after this match
- Felgueiras 1932, previous: Felgueiras 1932 vs Fafe: odds and pick
- Lusitânia Lourosa, previous: Lusitânia Lourosa – Os Limianos, 2026-10-18