Torreense vs Amarante preview
Torreense faces Amarante with a 49% chance of winning compared to Amarante's 24%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which occurs with a 9% probability. Torreense has an expected goals figure of 1.44, while Amarante sits at 1.29.
Both teams to score stands at 56%, and there is a 51% chance of Over 2.5 goals. Recent form shows Torreense with two losses and a win in their last five matches, while Amarante has two losses and two wins in the same period. A draw is also a possibility with a 27% probability, which could influence the outcome.
Torreense vs Amarante: model vs market
| Source | Torreense | Draw | Amarante |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33% | 27% | 40% |
| Market | 52% | 27% | 21% |
| Published | 47% | 27% | 26% |
| Edge | -5% | 0% | +5% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.85, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -12.8% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Torreense vs Amarante odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Torreense, 9 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Torreense | 1.77 | 1.76 | -0.01 |
| Draw | 3.26 | 3.38 | +0.12 |
| Amarante | 4.38 | 4.33 | -0.05 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Torreense and Amarante expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.91
- Attack rating (Torreense / Amarante)
- 0.94 / 1.06
- Defence rating (Torreense / Amarante)
- 1.25 / 1.16
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Torreense vs Amarante score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Torreense goals. Columns: Amarante goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Torreense vs Amarante goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 60%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Torreense vs Amarante
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Torreense | 47% | 2.12 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.70 | |
| Amarante | 26% | 3.87 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56% | 1.80 |
| Under 2.5 | 44% | 2.25 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60% | 1.68 |
| No | 40% | 2.48 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Torreense or draw) | 74% | 1.35 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Amarante) | 53% | 1.89 | |
| Handicap -1 | Torreense win by 2+ | 15% | 6.51 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Torreense and Amarante recent form
Torreense
2W 1D 3L
Amarante
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Torreense at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Amarante away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Torreense at home only, Amarante away only.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Chaves vs Vizela — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- Academica v Leixoes — match page 2026-10-24
- Sporting CP B vs Portimonense 2026-10-24
- Feirense v Benfica B — match page 2026-10-24
- Farense vs Penafiel 2026-10-24
- AVS vs Tondela 2026-10-25
- Felgueiras 1932 v Lusitânia Lourosa — match page 2026-10-25
- FC Porto B vs União de Leiria — team news & stats 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Torreense, previous: Ferencvarosi TC vs Torreense prediction
- Torreense, next: Torreense vs Ararat-Armenia prediction
- Amarante, previous: Academica vs Amarante: odds and pick