Updated

Segunda Liga · Matchday 7

Vizela vs Sporting CP B

· Estadio do FC Vizela, Vizela· Referee Flavio Jesus

Full time0 – 2

Alin prediction was Vizela to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 0

16% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
VizelaDrawSporting CP B

Vizela vs Sporting CP B: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceVizelaDrawSporting CP B
Model39%36%25%
Market45%28%26%
Published44%30%26%
Edge-2%+2%0%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Vizela vs Sporting CP B odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Vizela, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-04.

Opened 2.21Now 2.04 -0.17
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Vizela2.212.04-0.17
Draw3.273.25-0.02
Sporting CP B3.043.50+0.46

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Vizela and Sporting CP B expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.97Vizela
0.73Sporting CP B
Total expected goals
1.70
Attack rating (Vizela / Sporting CP B)
0.84 / 0.85
Defence rating (Vizela / Sporting CP B)
0.74 / 0.91

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Vizela vs Sporting CP B score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 19.6% 12.1% 4.9% 1.2% 0.3% 1 16.4% 14.2% 4.7% 1.2% 0.2% 2 8.6% 6.3% 2.3% 0.6% 0.1% 3 2.8% 2.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 4+ 0.8% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Vizela goals. Columns: Sporting CP B goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Vizela vs Sporting CP B goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 80%
Over 1.5 52%
Over 2.5 24%
Over 3.5 9%
Both teams to score
33%
No goals (0–0)
20%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Vizela vs Sporting CP B

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Vizela44%2.30
Draw30%3.29
Sporting CP B26%3.83
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.524%4.12
Under 2.576%1.32
Both teams to scoreYes33%2.99
No67%1.50
Double chance1X (Vizela or draw)74%1.35
12 (either side)70%1.44
X2 (draw or Sporting CP B)56%1.77
Handicap -1Vizela win by 2+15%6.67
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Vizela and Sporting CP B recent form

Vizela 3W 2D 1L
Sporting CP B 4W 0D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Vizela at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-0
Win rate
67%
Goals for / match
0.67
Goals against / match
0.00
Clean sheets
3 of 3
  • They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They average 1.7 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 6 matches.
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Sporting CP B away

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-1
Win rate
67%
Goals for / match
1.33
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
1 of 3
  • They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Vizela at home only, Sporting CP B away only.

Expected lineups

Vizela lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Antonio Gomis
  2. 20 B. Godwin
  3. 4 J. Rhyner
  4. 13 Luís Rocha
  5. 6 Giovani Bamba
  6. 8 A. Bastunov
  7. 36 M. Lacava
  8. 24 H. Mörschel
  9. 17 Miguel Tavares
  10. 99 A. Carter

Bench: Manu Garrido, N. Thio, A. Vulić, Lucas Antañón, Y. Fortuné, L. Mina, Neto, José Sampaio, A. Hristov, C. Cañozales, A. Traoré

Sporting CP B lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 99 Francisco Silva
  2. 50 Rodrigo Dias
  3. 95 Lucas Taibo
  4. 73 Eduardo Felicíssimo
  5. 76 Rodrigo Rodrigues
  6. 96 Samuel Justo
  7. 40 M. Tanlongo
  8. 87 Paulo Cardoso
  9. 78 Mauro Couto
  10. 47 M. Sanha
  11. 9 Rafael Ferreira Nel

Bench: M. Zekri, Kauã Oliveira, I. da Silva Mendes, Rafael Camacho, Miguel Monteiro Alves, Salvador Blopa, Gabriel Silva, Z. Bafdili, Rafael Mota

Vizela vs Sporting CP B head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Vizela 4 · draws 0 · Sporting CP B 0.

VizelaDrawsSporting CP B
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-26Vizela1-0Sporting CP BSegunda Liga
2025-12-14Sporting CP B0-1VizelaSegunda Liga
2017-02-09Vizela2-1Sporting CP BSegunda Liga
2016-08-29Sporting CP B1-2VizelaSegunda Liga

Other Matchday 7 fixtures

Before and after this match