Vizela vs Sporting CP B: model vs market
| Source | Vizela | Draw | Sporting CP B |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39% | 36% | 25% |
| Market | 43% | 28% | 29% |
| Published | 42% | 30% | 28% |
| Edge | -4% | +8% | -4% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.19, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Vizela vs Sporting CP B odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Vizela, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vizela | 2.21 | 2.15 | -0.06 |
| Draw | 3.27 | 3.25 | -0.02 |
| Sporting CP B | 3.04 | 3.19 | +0.15 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Vizela and Sporting CP B expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.70
- Attack rating (Vizela / Sporting CP B)
- 0.84 / 0.85
- Defence rating (Vizela / Sporting CP B)
- 0.74 / 0.91
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Vizela vs Sporting CP B score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Vizela goals. Columns: Sporting CP B goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Vizela vs Sporting CP B goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 33%
- No goals (0–0)
- 20%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Vizela vs Sporting CP B
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vizela | 42% | 2.39 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.30 | |
| Sporting CP B | 28% | 3.58 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 24% | 4.12 |
| Under 2.5 | 76% | 1.32 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 33% | 2.99 |
| No | 67% | 1.50 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Vizela or draw) | 72% | 1.39 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.43 | |
| X2 (draw or Sporting CP B) | 58% | 1.72 | |
| Handicap -1 | Vizela win by 2+ | 15% | 6.63 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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| 4 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Vizela and Sporting CP B recent form
Vizela
3W 2D 1L
Sporting CP B
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Vizela at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 5 matches.
Sporting CP B away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Vizela at home only, Sporting CP B away only.
Vizela vs Sporting CP B head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Vizela 2 · draws 0 · Sporting CP B 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | Vizela | 1-0 | Sporting CP B | Segunda Liga |
| 2025-12-14 | Sporting CP B | 0-1 | Vizela | Segunda Liga |
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