Upcoming Primeira Liga fixtures
9 fixtures in our publication window — every row opens the full prediction; 51 more scheduled later this season.
| Match | League | Pick | Edge | Ours | Market | Conf. | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia vs Sporting CPPrimeira LigaC | Primeira Liga | Sporting CPOur prob 70%Best odds 1.29 | -6% | 70% | 76% | C | 1.29 |
| Moreirense vs EstrelaPrimeira LigaC | Primeira Liga | EstrelaOur prob 38%Best odds 2.45 | -2% | 38% | 39% | C | 2.45 |
| FC Porto vs EstorilPrimeira LigaC | Primeira Liga | FC PortoOur prob 74%Best odds 1.30 | -1% | 74% | 75% | C | 1.30 |
| Arouca vs NacionalPrimeira LigaC | Primeira Liga | AroucaOur prob 55%Best odds 1.88 | +4% | 55% | 52% | C | 1.88 |
| Maritimo vs Santa ClaraPrimeira LigaC | Primeira Liga | Santa ClaraOur prob 44%Best odds 2.52 | +5% | 44% | 39% | C | 2.52 |
| Academico Viseu vs Rio AvePrimeira LigaC | Primeira Liga | Academico ViseuOur prob 51%Best odds 2.12 | +5% | 51% | 46% | C | 2.12 |
| SC Braga vs FamalicaoPrimeira LigaC | Primeira Liga | SC BragaOur prob 49%Best odds 1.72 | -7% | 49% | 56% | C | 1.72 |
| Benfica vs AlvercaPrimeira LigaC | Primeira Liga | BenficaOur prob 77% | — | 77% | — | C | — |
| GIL Vicente vs Vitória SCPrimeira LigaC | Primeira Liga | Vitória SCOur prob 33% | — | 33% | — | C | — |
Our prob = the probability we publish for that pick (the Ours column) — our model blended with the de-vigged market price where one is recorded; Market = that de-vigged market probability. Edge = Ours minus Market; grade A/B = the pick is backed by both/one team's xG record. Best odds = the top bookmaker price on our pick, taking each book at its own last update.
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Primeira Liga table
2026/27 season · computed from played results — ranked by points, then goal difference, then goals scored. Form: last five, newest first.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto |
9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 4 | +17 | 27 | |
| 2 |  Benfica |
9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 26 | 8 | +18 | 22 | |
| 3 |  Sporting CP |
9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 21 | 11 | +10 | 18 | |
| 4 |  Santa Clara |
9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 18 | |
| 5 |  Arouca |
9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 7 | +5 | 17 | |
| 6 |  Academico Viseu |
9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 17 | |
| 7 |  GIL Vicente |
9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 14 | |
| 8 |  Alverca |
9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 11 | |
| 9 |  SC Braga |
9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 11 | |
| 10 |  Moreirense |
9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 11 | |
| 11 |  Famalicao |
9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 10 | |
| 12 |  Estrela |
9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 10 | |
| 13 |  Vitória SC |
9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 8 | |
| 14 |  Maritimo |
9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 8 | |
| 15 |  Nacional |
9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 7 | |
| 16 |  Casa Pia |
9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 17 | -12 | 7 | |
| 17 |  Rio Ave |
9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 21 | -13 | 7 | |
| 18 |  Estoril |
9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 2 |
P = played, GD = goal difference, Pts = points. Not an imported table: it is rebuilt from the results in our database, so it may lag the official one by a match.
Primeira Liga trends
How Primeira Liga matches actually ended in the 2026/27: 81 played matches. A record of results, not a forecast.
Change is in percentage points against the 2025/26 season (308 played matches).
Top Primeira Liga teams by model rating
The attack and defence rates our model feeds into every prediction, as of the last update. Net = attack − defence, in goals per match.
- Net rating
- +1.46
- Attack
- 2.45
- Defence
- 0.99
- Net rating
- +0.68
- Attack
- 2.00
- Defence
- 1.32
- Net rating
- +0.56
- Attack
- 1.61
- Defence
- 1.05
Rates are decay-weighted over each team’s last 15 completed matches — xG where the window is xG-backed, goals otherwise — and shrunk towards the league average; a higher attack and a lower defence rate are better. Form: last five results, newest first.
Top scorers in Primeira Liga
From the Primeira Liga scoring charts this season — goals first, then assists. Not a full squad list.
- V. PavlidisBenfica 8 G 3 A
- L. SuárezSporting CP 8 G 1 A
- G. PrestianniBenfica 5 G 3 A
- Gonçalo PaciênciaSanta Clara 5 G 1 A
- G. KoutsiasFamalicao 5 G 0 A
- BarberoArouca 5 G 0 A
- Gabri VeigaFC Porto 4 G 3 A
- I. StoicaEstrela 4 G 2 A
Recent Primeira Liga results
Last 6 played — what we predicted and what happened.
| Date | Match | Our pick | Our prob | Score | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Clara vs BenficaOur pick Benfica · 67% | Benfica to win | 67% | 1–2 | Correct | |
| Sporting CP vs Academico ViseuOur pick Sporting CP · 72% | Sporting CP to win | 72% | 1–2 | Missed | |
| Rio Ave vs FamalicaoOur pick Famalicao · 44% | Famalicao to win | 44% | 0–4 | Correct | |
| Nacional vs SC BragaOur pick SC Braga · 59% | SC Braga to win | 59% | 1–0 | Missed | |
| Estoril vs MoreirenseOur pick Estoril · 45% | Estoril to win | 45% | 1–3 | Missed | |
| GIL Vicente vs FC PortoOur pick FC Porto · 59% | FC Porto to win | 59% | 0–1 | Correct |
Our pick = the 1X2 selection we published before kick-off, with the probability we gave it; Correct/Missed compares that pick with the final result.