Upcoming Primeira Liga fixtures
9 fixtures in our publication window — every row opens the full prediction; 51 more scheduled later this season.
| Match | League | Pick | Edge | Model | Market | Conf. | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moreirense vs GIL VicentePrimeira LigaC | Primeira Liga | GIL VicenteOur prob 40%Best odds 2.31 | -9% | 34% | 42% | C | 2.31 |
| SC Braga vs Sporting CPPrimeira LigaC | Primeira Liga | Sporting CPOur prob 44%Best odds 2.11 | -11% | 35% | 46% | C | 2.11 |
| Casa Pia vs Santa ClaraPrimeira LigaC | Primeira Liga | Santa ClaraOur prob 51%Best odds 1.96 | +8% | 58% | 49% | C | 1.96 |
| Maritimo vs FC PortoPrimeira LigaC | Primeira Liga | FC PortoOur prob 69%Best odds 1.33 | -10% | 61% | 71% | C | 1.33 |
| Academico Viseu vs EstorilPrimeira LigaC | Primeira Liga | Academico ViseuOur prob 47%Best odds 2.32 | +21% | 62% | 41% | C | 2.32 |
| Rio Ave vs NacionalPrimeira LigaC | Primeira Liga | Rio AveOur prob 41%Best odds 2.34 | -4% | 38% | 42% | C | 2.34 |
| Benfica vs Vitória SCPrimeira LigaC | Primeira Liga | BenficaOur prob 76%Best odds 1.26 | +2% | 78% | 76% | C | 1.26 |
| Arouca vs EstrelaPrimeira LigaC | Primeira Liga | AroucaOur prob 46%Best odds 2.22 | +12% | 56% | 43% | C | 2.22 |
| Famalicao vs AlvercaPrimeira LigaC | Primeira Liga | FamalicaoOur prob 51%Best odds 1.87 | 0% | 51% | 51% | C | 1.87 |
Our prob = the probability we publish for that pick — the model blended with the de-vigged market price where one is recorded; the Model and Market columns are the two inputs behind it. Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability; grade A/B = the pick is backed by both/one team's xG record. Best odds = the top bookmaker price on our pick, taking each book at its own last update.
Betting sites compared
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them in Kenya — the full comparison and how we read it is on its own page
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Primeira Liga table
2026/27 season · computed from played results — ranked by points, then goal difference, then goals scored. Form: last five, newest first.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto |
7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 3 | +15 | 21 | |
| 2 |  Benfica |
7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 7 | +15 | 16 | |
| 3 |  Sporting CP |
7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 17 | 8 | +9 | 15 | |
| 4 |  Santa Clara |
7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 15 | |
| 5 |  Arouca |
7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 11 | |
| 6 |  SC Braga |
6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 11 | |
| 7 |  Academico Viseu |
7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 11 | |
| 8 |  Estrela |
7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 10 | |
| 9 |  GIL Vicente |
6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 8 | |
| 10 |  Alverca |
7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 8 | |
| 11 |  Maritimo |
7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 8 | |
| 12 |  Moreirense |
7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 8 | |
| 13 |  Famalicao |
7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 7 | |
| 14 |  Vitória SC |
7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 5 | |
| 15 |  Nacional |
7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 15 | -8 | 4 | |
| 16 |  Rio Ave |
7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 4 | |
| 17 |  Casa Pia |
7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 16 | -13 | 4 | |
| 18 |  Estoril |
7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 2 |
P = played, GD = goal difference, Pts = points. Not an imported table: it is rebuilt from the results in our database, so it may lag the official one by a match.
Primeira Liga trends
How Primeira Liga matches actually ended in the 2026/27: 62 played matches. A record of results, not a forecast.
Change is in percentage points against the 2025/26 season (308 played matches).
Top Primeira Liga teams by model rating
The attack and defence rates our model feeds into every prediction, as of the last update. Net = attack − defence, in goals per match.
- Net rating
- +1.43
- Attack
- 2.48
- Defence
- 1.05
- Net rating
- +0.99
- Attack
- 2.14
- Defence
- 1.15
- Net rating
- +0.90
- Attack
- 1.80
- Defence
- 0.90
Rates are decay-weighted over each team’s last 15 completed matches — xG where the window is xG-backed, goals otherwise — and shrunk towards the league average; a higher attack and a lower defence rate are better. Form: last five results, newest first.
Top scorers in Primeira Liga
From the Primeira Liga scoring charts this season — goals first, then assists. Not a full squad list.
- V. PavlidisBenfica 8 G 2 A
- L. SuárezSporting CP 6 G 1 A
- G. PrestianniBenfica 5 G 3 A
- Gonçalo PaciênciaSanta Clara 5 G 1 A
- G. KoutsiasFamalicao 5 G 0 A
- Gabri VeigaFC Porto 4 G 3 A
- I. StoicaEstrela 4 G 2 A
- A. MarcusEstrela 4 G 1 A
Recent Primeira Liga results
Last 6 played — what we predicted and what happened.
| Date | Match | Our pick | Our prob | Score | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto vs BenficaOur pick Benfica · 41% | Benfica to win | 41% | 3–1 | Missed | |
| Santa Clara vs SC BragaOur pick SC Braga · 39% | SC Braga to win | 39% | 0–0 | Missed | |
| Estoril vs Casa PiaOur pick Estoril · 52% | Estoril to win | 52% | 1–2 | Missed | |
| Vitória SC vs MoreirenseOur pick Vitória SC · 59% | Vitória SC to win | 59% | 1–1 | Missed | |
| Estrela vs Academico ViseuOur pick Estrela · 43% | Estrela to win | 43% | 0–2 | Missed | |
| Sporting CP vs AroucaOur pick Sporting CP · 75% | Sporting CP to win | 75% | 2–2 | Missed |
Our pick = the 1X2 selection we published before kick-off, with the probability we gave it; Correct/Missed compares that pick with the final result.