Chaves vs Os Marialvas Prediction & Betting Tips 16/10/2026

Chaves vs Os Marialvas preview

In the Taça de Portugal match between Chaves and Os Marialvas, the 1X2 probabilities show Os Marialvas at 59%, while Chaves sits at 16%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which aligns with Os Marialvas' expected goals of 1.80 compared to Chaves' 0.85.

Both teams to score stands at 49%, indicating a close contest, while Over 2.5 goals is at 50%. Chaves' recent form shows a mixed bag with L-W-W-L-D-L, whereas Os Marialvas has been more consistent with W-W-D-W. The confidence grade is C, suggesting potential uncertainty in the outcome.

Chaves vs Os Marialvas: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Chaves	Draw	Os Marialvas
Model	16%	25%	59%
Market	—	—	—
Published	16%	25%	59%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.80 vs 0.85.
Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 4 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Chaves and Os Marialvas expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.85Chaves

1.80Os Marialvas

Total expected goals: 2.66
Attack rating (Chaves / Os Marialvas): 0.89 / 0.98
Defence rating (Chaves / Os Marialvas): 1.22 / 0.56

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Chaves vs Os Marialvas score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 8.1% 11.6% 11.4% 6.9% 4.7% 1 4.9% 11.9% 9.7% 5.9% 4.0% 2 2.6% 4.6% 4.2% 2.5% 1.7% 3 0.7% 1.3% 1.2% 0.7% 0.5% 4+ 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1%

Rows: Chaves goals. Columns: Os Marialvas goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Chaves vs Os Marialvas goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%

Over 1.5 75%

Over 2.5 50%

Over 3.5 28%

Both teams to score: 49%
No goals (0–0): 8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Chaves vs Os Marialvas

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Chaves	16%	6.14
	Draw	25%	4.01
	Os Marialvas	59%	1.70
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	50%	2.02
	Under 2.5	50%	1.98
Both teams to score	Yes	49%	2.04
	No	51%	1.96
Double chance	1X (Chaves or draw)	41%	2.43
	12 (either side)	75%	1.33
	X2 (draw or Os Marialvas)	84%	1.19
Handicap -1	Os Marialvas win by 2+	35%	2.89
	Push (exactly one goal)	24%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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