União Santarém vs GIL Vicente Prediction & Betting Tips 14/10/2026

União Santarém vs GIL Vicente preview

In the Taça de Portugal match between União Santarém and GIL Vicente, the 1X2 probabilities show União Santarém at 55% and GIL Vicente at 19%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 12% chance. União Santarém has an expected goals figure of 1.66, while GIL Vicente sits at 0.87.

However, the match could see different outcomes if GIL Vicente improves their recent form, which includes three losses in their last five matches. Both teams to score has a probability of 48%, and Over 2.5 goals stands at 46%. This suggests that while União Santarém is favored, GIL Vicente could still pose a challenge if they find their scoring touch.

União Santarém vs GIL Vicente: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	União Santarém	Draw	GIL Vicente
Model	51%	29%	21%
Market	—	—	—
Published	51%	29%	21%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.49 vs 0.86.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

União Santarém and GIL Vicente expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.49União Santarém

0.86GIL Vicente

Total expected goals: 2.36
Attack rating (União Santarém / GIL Vicente): 1.18 / 0.65
Defence rating (União Santarém / GIL Vicente): 0.88 / 0.73

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

União Santarém vs GIL Vicente score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 10.7% 7.0% 3.5% 1.0% 0.3% 1 12.9% 13.4% 5.3% 1.5% 0.4% 2 10.5% 9.1% 3.9% 1.1% 0.3% 3 5.2% 4.5% 2.0% 0.6% 0.1% 4+ 2.7% 2.4% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: União Santarém goals. Columns: GIL Vicente goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

União Santarém vs GIL Vicente goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 89%

Over 1.5 69%

Over 2.5 42%

Over 3.5 21%

Both teams to score: 46%
No goals (0–0): 11%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for União Santarém vs GIL Vicente

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	União Santarém	51%	1.97
	Draw	29%	3.48
	GIL Vicente	21%	4.86
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	42%	2.39
	Under 2.5	58%	1.72
Both teams to score	Yes	46%	2.17
	No	54%	1.85
Double chance	1X (União Santarém or draw)	79%	1.26
	12 (either side)	71%	1.40
	X2 (draw or GIL Vicente)	49%	2.03
Handicap -1	União Santarém win by 2+	26%	3.77
	Push (exactly one goal)	24%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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