Riga vs Super Nova preview
In the upcoming match between Riga and Super Nova, the 1X2 probabilities show Riga at 57% to win, while Super Nova stands at 15%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which aligns with Riga's expected goals of 1.51 compared to Super Nova's 0.66. This suggests a strong advantage for Riga.
However, the confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty. Both teams to score is at 39%, and Over 2.5 goals is at 37%. If Super Nova's recent form improves or if Riga fails to convert their chances, the predicted outcome could change.
Riga vs Super Nova: model vs market
| Source | Riga | Draw | Super Nova |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 57% | 28% | 15% |
| Market | 83% | 13% | 5% |
| Published | 76% | 17% | 7% |
| Edge | -26% | +16% | +10% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.51 vs 0.66.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.16, recorded — the top price across the 5 books we record, each at its own last update.
Riga vs Super Nova odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Riga, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-14.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Riga | 1.08 | 1.08 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 7.10 | 7.10 | +0.00 |
| Super Nova | 19.00 | 19.00 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Riga and Super Nova expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.17
- Attack rating (Riga / Super Nova)
- 1.20 / 0.70
- Defence rating (Riga / Super Nova)
- 0.74 / 0.77
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Riga vs Super Nova score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Riga goals. Columns: Super Nova goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Riga vs Super Nova goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 39%
- No goals (0–0)
- 13%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Riga vs Super Nova
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Riga | 76% | 1.31 |
| Draw | 17% | 6.06 | |
| Super Nova | 7% | 13.68 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 37% | 2.71 |
| Under 2.5 | 63% | 1.59 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 39% | 2.57 |
| No | 61% | 1.64 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Riga or draw) | 93% | 1.08 |
| 12 (either side) | 83% | 1.20 | |
| X2 (draw or Super Nova) | 24% | 4.20 | |
| Handicap -1 | Riga win by 2+ | 30% | 3.29 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Riga and Super Nova recent form
Riga
3W 2D 1L
Super Nova
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Riga at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 12-4-0
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 2.88
- Goals against / match
- 0.88
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 16
- They have won 22 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 2.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Super Nova away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-2-6
- Win rate
- 47%
- Goals for / match
- 0.93
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 15
- They have won 11 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Riga at home only, Super Nova away only.
Riga vs Super Nova head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Riga 9 · draws 1 · Super Nova 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Super Nova | 0-1 | Riga | Virsliga |
| 2026-05-24 | Riga | 3-0 | Super Nova | Virsliga |
| 2026-04-14 | Super Nova | 1-4 | Riga | Virsliga |
| 2025-08-30 | Super Nova | 2-6 | Riga | Virsliga |
| 2025-06-22 | Riga | 2-0 | Super Nova | Virsliga |
| 2025-05-01 | Super Nova | 1-5 | Riga | Virsliga |
| 2025-03-06 | Riga | 2-0 | Super Nova | Virsliga |
| 2023-10-29 | Riga | 1-1 | Super Nova | Virsliga |
| 2023-08-06 | Super Nova | 1-5 | Riga | Virsliga |
| 2023-05-31 | Riga | 5-1 | Super Nova | Virsliga |
Other Matchday 33 fixtures
- Grobiņa vs Ogre United 2026-10-17
- FK Liepaja v FS Jelgava — match page 2026-10-18
- BFC Daugavpils vs Auda 2026-10-19
- Rīgas FS v Tukums — match page 2026-10-19
Before and after this match
- Riga, previous: Riga vs Kairat Almaty: odds and pick
- Riga, next: Pafos vs Riga: odds and pick
- Super Nova, previous: Rīgas FS vs Super Nova prediction