Rīgas FS vs Super Nova preview
In the Virsliga fixture, Rīgas FS has a 59% chance to win against Super Nova, who has a 13% chance. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 17% probability. Rīgas FS has an expected goals figure of 1.54, while Super Nova sits at 0.60.
Both teams to score is at 36%, which indicates that a clean sheet for Rīgas FS is plausible. Recent form shows Rīgas FS with a D-W-D-W-D-L record, while Super Nova has L-L-W-W-D-D. Rīgas FS has won all of their last 6 encounters against Super Nova, which could influence the outcome. However, the confidence grade is C, suggesting uncertainty in the match result.
Rīgas FS vs Super Nova: model vs market
| Source | Rīgas FS | Draw | Super Nova |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 59% | 28% | 13% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 59% | 28% | 13% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.54 vs 0.60.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Rīgas FS and Super Nova expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.13
- Attack rating (Rīgas FS / Super Nova)
- 1.20 / 0.62
- Defence rating (Rīgas FS / Super Nova)
- 0.76 / 0.79
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Rīgas FS vs Super Nova score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Rīgas FS goals. Columns: Super Nova goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Rīgas FS vs Super Nova goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 36%
- No goals (0–0)
- 13%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Rīgas FS vs Super Nova
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rīgas FS | 59% | 1.69 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.62 | |
| Super Nova | 13% | 7.56 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 36% | 2.78 |
| Under 2.5 | 64% | 1.56 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 36% | 2.75 |
| No | 64% | 1.57 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Rīgas FS or draw) | 87% | 1.15 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Super Nova) | 41% | 2.45 | |
| Handicap -1 | Rīgas FS win by 2+ | 32% | 3.10 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 27% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Rīgas FS and Super Nova recent form
Rīgas FS
2W 3D 1L
Super Nova
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Rīgas FS at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-4-1
- Win rate
- 64%
- Goals for / match
- 3.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.86
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 14
- They have won 23 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
- They have kept 15 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 8 matches.
- They have converted 9 of 10 penalties (90%).
Super Nova away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-2-6
- Win rate
- 47%
- Goals for / match
- 0.93
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 15
- They have won 10 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Rīgas FS at home only, Super Nova away only.
Rīgas FS vs Super Nova head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Rīgas FS 6 · draws 0 · Super Nova 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-29 | Super Nova | 1-2 | Rīgas FS | Virsliga |
| 2026-04-18 | Rīgas FS | 2-0 | Super Nova | Virsliga |
| 2025-11-02 | Super Nova | 1-3 | Rīgas FS | Virsliga |
| 2025-08-10 | Rīgas FS | 4-1 | Super Nova | Virsliga |
| 2025-06-14 | Rīgas FS | 2-1 | Super Nova | Virsliga |
| 2025-04-20 | Super Nova | 1-2 | Rīgas FS | Virsliga |
Before and after this match
- Rīgas FS, previous: Rīgas FS v FS Jelgava analysis
- Super Nova, previous: Super Nova vs Grobiņa prediction