Super Nova vs Grobiņa preview
Super Nova faces Grobiņa with a 41% chance of winning according to the model 1X2 probabilities. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which occurs 19% of the time. However, the match could lean differently if Grobiņa improves their recent form, which shows only one win in their last six matches.
The expectation for Over 2.5 goals is 26%, while both teams to score stands at 32%. Super Nova's expected goals are 1.14 compared to Grobiņa's 0.61, indicating a stronger attacking performance from Super Nova. Despite their recent struggles, Grobiņa has managed to draw in their last two matches, which could impact the outcome.
Super Nova vs Grobiņa: model vs market
| Source | Super Nova | Draw | Grobiņa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47% | 34% | 19% |
| Market | 39% | 27% | 34% |
| Published | 41% | 28% | 30% |
| Edge | +8% | +8% | -16% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.14 vs 0.61.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Super Nova below the model: +8.1 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.37, recorded — the top price across the 3 books we record, each at its own last update.
Super Nova vs Grobiņa odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Super Nova, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Super Nova | 2.29 | 2.30 | +0.01 |
| Draw | 3.55 | 3.40 | -0.15 |
| Grobiņa | 2.60 | 2.63 | +0.03 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Super Nova and Grobiņa expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.75
- Attack rating (Super Nova / Grobiņa)
- 0.62 / 0.61
- Defence rating (Super Nova / Grobiņa)
- 0.79 / 1.12
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Super Nova vs Grobiņa score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Super Nova goals. Columns: Grobiņa goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Super Nova vs Grobiņa goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 32%
- No goals (0–0)
- 19%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Super Nova vs Grobiņa
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Super Nova | 41% | 2.43 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.52 | |
| Grobiņa | 30% | 3.30 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 26% | 3.92 |
| Under 2.5 | 74% | 1.34 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 32% | 3.10 |
| No | 68% | 1.48 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Super Nova or draw) | 70% | 1.44 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Grobiņa) | 59% | 1.70 | |
| Handicap -1 | Super Nova win by 2+ | 21% | 4.77 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Super Nova and Grobiņa recent form
Super Nova
2W 2D 2L
Grobiņa
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Super Nova at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-3-9
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 15
- They have won 10 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Grobiņa away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-5-9
- Win rate
- 12%
- Goals for / match
- 0.56
- Goals against / match
- 2.06
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 16
- They have won 5 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 15 of 30 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Super Nova at home only, Grobiņa away only.
Super Nova vs Grobiņa head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: Super Nova 3 · draws 4 · Grobiņa 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | Super Nova | 2-0 | Grobiņa | Virsliga |
| 2026-05-20 | Grobiņa | 0-2 | Super Nova | Virsliga |
| 2026-04-09 | Grobiņa | 0-1 | Super Nova | Virsliga |
| 2025-10-18 | Grobiņa | 0-0 | Super Nova | Virsliga |
| 2025-07-26 | Super Nova | 0-0 | Grobiņa | Virsliga |
| 2025-05-26 | Grobiņa | 1-1 | Super Nova | Virsliga |
| 2025-04-10 | Super Nova | 1-1 | Grobiņa | Virsliga |
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