FK Liepaja vs Auda: model vs market
| Source | FK Liepaja | Draw | Auda |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35% | 33% | 32% |
| Market | 35% | 26% | 39% |
| Published | 35% | 28% | 37% |
| Edge | 0% | +7% | -7% |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.35, recorded — the top price across the 1 books we record, each at its own last update.
FK Liepaja vs Auda odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Auda, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-06.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| FK Liepaja | 2.60 | 2.60 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.50 | 3.50 | +0.00 |
| Auda | 2.35 | 2.35 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
FK Liepaja and Auda expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.07
- Attack rating (FK Liepaja / Auda)
- 0.94 / 0.95
- Defence rating (FK Liepaja / Auda)
- 0.84 / 0.69
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FK Liepaja vs Auda score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FK Liepaja goals. Columns: Auda goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FK Liepaja vs Auda goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 43%
- No goals (0–0)
- 14%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FK Liepaja vs Auda
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FK Liepaja | 35% | 2.85 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.60 | |
| Auda | 37% | 2.69 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 34% | 2.91 |
| Under 2.5 | 66% | 1.52 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43% | 2.33 |
| No | 57% | 1.75 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FK Liepaja or draw) | 63% | 1.59 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Auda) | 65% | 1.54 | |
| Handicap -1 | Auda win by 2+ | 13% | 7.91 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
FK Liepaja and Auda recent form
FK Liepaja
2W 3D 1L
Auda
3W 3D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FK Liepaja at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-3-3
- Win rate
- 57%
- Goals for / match
- 1.86
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 14
- They have won 12 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 30 matches.
- They have converted 10 of 10 penalties (100%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Auda away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-4-2
- Win rate
- 57%
- Goals for / match
- 1.43
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 14
- They have won 18 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: FK Liepaja at home only, Auda away only.
FK Liepaja vs Auda head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: FK Liepaja 3 · draws 1 · Auda 6.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Auda | 1-0 | FK Liepaja | Virsliga |
| 2026-07-11 | Auda | 1-0 | FK Liepaja | Cup |
| 2026-05-22 | Auda | 3-1 | FK Liepaja | Virsliga |
| 2026-04-08 | FK Liepaja | 1-2 | Auda | Virsliga |
| 2025-10-20 | Auda | 1-2 | FK Liepaja | Virsliga |
| 2025-07-27 | FK Liepaja | 2-0 | Auda | Virsliga |
| 2025-05-24 | FK Liepaja | 0-0 | Auda | Virsliga |
| 2025-04-09 | Auda | 3-0 | FK Liepaja | Virsliga |
| 2024-10-05 | FK Liepaja | 2-1 | Auda | Virsliga |
| 2024-09-25 | Auda | 3-0 | FK Liepaja | Cup |
Other Matchday 32 fixtures
- Tukums vs Riga 2026-10-10
- Super Nova v Grobiņa — match page 2026-10-10
- Ogre United vs BFC Daugavpils — team news & stats 2026-10-11
- Rīgas FS vs FS Jelgava 2026-10-11