Ogre United vs BFC Daugavpils: model vs market
| Source | Ogre United | Draw | BFC Daugavpils |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 22% | 31% | 47% |
| Market | 27% | 25% | 48% |
| Published | 26% | 27% | 48% |
| Edge | -4% | +5% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.33 vs 0.84.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.90, recorded — the top price across the 1 books we record, each at its own last update.
Ogre United vs BFC Daugavpils odds movement
Median bookmaker price on BFC Daugavpils, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-05.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ogre United | 3.58 | 3.44 | -0.14 |
| Draw | 3.65 | 3.60 | -0.05 |
| BFC Daugavpils | 1.86 | 1.90 | +0.04 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Ogre United and BFC Daugavpils expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.17
- Attack rating (Ogre United / BFC Daugavpils)
- 0.80 / 0.75
- Defence rating (Ogre United / BFC Daugavpils)
- 1.39 / 0.64
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Ogre United vs BFC Daugavpils score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Ogre United goals. Columns: BFC Daugavpils goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Ogre United vs BFC Daugavpils goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 43%
- No goals (0–0)
- 13%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Ogre United vs BFC Daugavpils
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ogre United | 26% | 3.92 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.74 | |
| BFC Daugavpils | 48% | 2.09 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 37% | 2.71 |
| Under 2.5 | 63% | 1.58 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43% | 2.32 |
| No | 57% | 1.76 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Ogre United or draw) | 52% | 1.91 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or BFC Daugavpils) | 74% | 1.34 | |
| Handicap -1 | BFC Daugavpils win by 2+ | 23% | 4.41 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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| 4 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Ogre United and BFC Daugavpils recent form
Ogre United
1W 1D 4L
BFC Daugavpils
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Ogre United at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-5-8
- Win rate
- 13%
- Goals for / match
- 1.13
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 15
- They have won 3 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 30 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
BFC Daugavpils away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-7-6
- Win rate
- 13%
- Goals for / match
- 1.13
- Goals against / match
- 1.47
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 15
- They have won 10 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Ogre United at home only, BFC Daugavpils away only.
Ogre United vs BFC Daugavpils head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Ogre United 0 · draws 0 · BFC Daugavpils 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-19 | Ogre United | 0-4 | BFC Daugavpils | Virsliga |
| 2026-05-21 | BFC Daugavpils | 3-1 | Ogre United | Virsliga |
| 2026-04-07 | BFC Daugavpils | 2-1 | Ogre United | Virsliga |
Other Matchday 32 fixtures
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- Super Nova v Grobiņa — match page 2026-10-10
- Rīgas FS vs FS Jelgava 2026-10-11
- FK Liepaja v Auda — match page 2026-10-12