Rīgas FS vs FS Jelgava: model vs market
| Source | Rīgas FS | Draw | FS Jelgava |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 57% | 26% | 17% |
| Market | 80% | 13% | 6% |
| Published | 74% | 17% | 9% |
| Edge | -23% | +13% | +10% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.69 vs 0.81.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.13, recorded — the top price across the 1 books we record, each at its own last update.
Rīgas FS vs FS Jelgava odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Rīgas FS, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-05.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rīgas FS | 1.14 | 1.13 | -0.01 |
| Draw | 6.60 | 6.80 | +0.20 |
| FS Jelgava | 14.00 | 14.00 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Rīgas FS and FS Jelgava expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.49
- Attack rating (Rīgas FS / FS Jelgava)
- 1.20 / 0.84
- Defence rating (Rīgas FS / FS Jelgava)
- 0.76 / 0.86
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Rīgas FS vs FS Jelgava score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Rīgas FS goals. Columns: FS Jelgava goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Rīgas FS vs FS Jelgava goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 46%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Rīgas FS vs FS Jelgava
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rīgas FS | 74% | 1.34 |
| Draw | 17% | 6.04 | |
| FS Jelgava | 9% | 11.12 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45% | 2.20 |
| Under 2.5 | 55% | 1.83 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46% | 2.16 |
| No | 54% | 1.86 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Rīgas FS or draw) | 91% | 1.10 |
| 12 (either side) | 83% | 1.20 | |
| X2 (draw or FS Jelgava) | 26% | 3.92 | |
| Handicap -1 | Rīgas FS win by 2+ | 33% | 3.07 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Rīgas FS and FS Jelgava recent form
Rīgas FS
2W 3D 1L
FS Jelgava
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Rīgas FS at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-4-1
- Win rate
- 64%
- Goals for / match
- 3.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.86
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 14
- They have won 23 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 1.9 on the road.
- They have kept 15 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 8 matches.
- They have converted 9 of 10 penalties (90%).
FS Jelgava away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-6-5
- Win rate
- 27%
- Goals for / match
- 1.27
- Goals against / match
- 1.60
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 15
- They have won 8 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 14 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Rīgas FS at home only, FS Jelgava away only.
Rīgas FS vs FS Jelgava head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: Rīgas FS 5 · draws 1 · FS Jelgava 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | FS Jelgava | 0-1 | Rīgas FS | Virsliga |
| 2026-05-21 | Rīgas FS | 4-0 | FS Jelgava | Virsliga |
| 2026-04-08 | FS Jelgava | 0-1 | Rīgas FS | Virsliga |
| 2025-09-13 | Rīgas FS | 1-4 | FS Jelgava | Virsliga |
| 2025-06-26 | FS Jelgava | 0-1 | Rīgas FS | Virsliga |
| 2025-05-05 | FS Jelgava | 2-2 | Rīgas FS | Virsliga |
| 2025-03-11 | Rīgas FS | 1-0 | FS Jelgava | Virsliga |
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