Tukums vs Riga preview
In the Virsliga fixture between Tukums and Riga, the key number is the 59% probability for a Riga win. This is supported by their recent form, where they have won four of their last six matches, compared to Tukums, who have only one win in their last six games. The most likely scoreline is 0-2, with expected goals of 0.96 for Tukums and 1.94 for Riga.
The market also indicates a 55% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance for both teams to score. However, Tukums' ability to secure a draw or improve their form could challenge these outcomes. The confidence grade is C, meaning these probabilities are based solely on the model and may not fully reflect the match dynamics.
Tukums vs Riga: model vs market
| Source | Tukums | Draw | Riga |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 17% | 24% | 59% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 17% | 24% | 59% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.94 vs 0.96.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Tukums and Riga expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.89
- Attack rating (Tukums / Riga)
- 0.72 / 1.21
- Defence rating (Tukums / Riga)
- 1.26 / 0.81
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Tukums vs Riga score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Tukums goals. Columns: Riga goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Tukums vs Riga goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Tukums vs Riga
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tukums | 17% | 5.86 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.22 | |
| Riga | 59% | 1.69 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55% | 1.81 |
| Under 2.5 | 45% | 2.23 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.86 |
| No | 46% | 2.16 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Tukums or draw) | 41% | 2.45 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Riga) | 83% | 1.21 | |
| Handicap -1 | Riga win by 2+ | 36% | 2.78 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Tukums and Riga recent form
Tukums
1W 1D 4L
Riga
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Tukums at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-5-6
- Win rate
- 31%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 16
- They have won 5 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 30 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Riga away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 10-3-2
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.07
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 15
- They have won 21 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 2.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Tukums at home only, Riga away only.
Tukums vs Riga head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: Tukums 0 · draws 2 · Riga 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Riga | 3-1 | Tukums | Virsliga |
| 2026-05-20 | Tukums | 1-3 | Riga | Virsliga |
| 2026-04-09 | Riga | 3-3 | Tukums | Virsliga |
| 2025-10-24 | Riga | 0-0 | Tukums | Virsliga |
| 2025-08-03 | Tukums | 0-1 | Riga | Virsliga |
| 2025-05-31 | Riga | 3-0 | Tukums | Virsliga |
| 2025-04-13 | Tukums | 0-3 | Riga | Virsliga |
Other Matchday 32 fixtures
- Super Nova v Grobiņa — match page 2026-10-10
- Ogre United vs BFC Daugavpils — team news & stats 2026-10-11
- Rīgas FS vs FS Jelgava 2026-10-11
- FK Liepaja v Auda — match page 2026-10-12