BFC Daugavpils vs Auda preview
In the upcoming match between BFC Daugavpils and Auda, the 1X2 probabilities show Auda at 43% to win, while BFC Daugavpils has a 30% chance. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, occurring at a rate of 12%. BFC Daugavpils has struggled recently with a record of W-D-L-D-L-D, while Auda is in better form with W-D-W-D-W-D.
The expected goals indicate BFC Daugavpils at 1.00 and Auda at 0.89, suggesting a tight contest. The model forecasts only a 29% chance for Over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score. If BFC Daugavpils can improve their scoring, the match dynamics could shift significantly.
BFC Daugavpils vs Auda: model vs market
| Source | BFC Daugavpils | Draw | Auda |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 36% | 35% | 30% |
| Market | 28% | 26% | 47% |
| Published | 30% | 28% | 43% |
| Edge | +8% | +9% | -17% |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.98, recorded — the top price across the 5 books we record, each at its own last update.
BFC Daugavpils vs Auda odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Auda, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-14.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| BFC Daugavpils | 3.25 | 3.25 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.48 | 3.48 | +0.00 |
| Auda | 1.91 | 1.91 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
BFC Daugavpils and Auda expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.89
- Attack rating (BFC Daugavpils / Auda)
- 0.82 / 1.07
- Defence rating (BFC Daugavpils / Auda)
- 0.65 / 0.75
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
BFC Daugavpils vs Auda score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: BFC Daugavpils goals. Columns: Auda goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
BFC Daugavpils vs Auda goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 39%
- No goals (0–0)
- 16%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for BFC Daugavpils vs Auda
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | BFC Daugavpils | 30% | 3.38 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.59 | |
| Auda | 43% | 2.35 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 29% | 3.39 |
| Under 2.5 | 71% | 1.42 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 39% | 2.58 |
| No | 61% | 1.63 | |
| Double chance | 1X (BFC Daugavpils or draw) | 57% | 1.74 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Auda) | 70% | 1.42 | |
| Handicap -1 | Auda win by 2+ | 11% | 9.29 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
BFC Daugavpils and Auda recent form
BFC Daugavpils
1W 3D 2L
Auda
3W 3D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
BFC Daugavpils at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-2-6
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.12
- Goals against / match
- 0.81
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 16
- They have won 10 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Auda away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-4-2
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.53
- Goals against / match
- 1.07
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 15
- They have won 18 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: BFC Daugavpils at home only, Auda away only.
BFC Daugavpils vs Auda head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: BFC Daugavpils 4 · draws 1 · Auda 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 | Auda | 1-0 | BFC Daugavpils | Virsliga |
| 2026-05-26 | BFC Daugavpils | 0-1 | Auda | Virsliga |
| 2026-04-12 | Auda | 2-3 | BFC Daugavpils | Virsliga |
| 2025-10-05 | BFC Daugavpils | 1-0 | Auda | Virsliga |
| 2025-07-20 | Auda | 1-3 | BFC Daugavpils | Virsliga |
| 2025-05-20 | Auda | 1-1 | BFC Daugavpils | Virsliga |
| 2025-04-04 | BFC Daugavpils | 2-1 | Auda | Virsliga |
Other Matchday 33 fixtures
- Grobiņa vs Ogre United 2026-10-17
- FK Liepaja v FS Jelgava — match page 2026-10-18
- Riga vs Super Nova — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Rīgas FS v Tukums — match page 2026-10-19
Before and after this match
- BFC Daugavpils, previous: Ogre United – BFC Daugavpils, 2026-10-11
- Auda, previous: FK Liepaja vs Auda: odds and pick