Rīgas FS vs Tukums preview
In the Virsliga fixture between Rīgas FS and Tukums, the 1X2 probabilities show Rīgas FS at 80%, while Tukums stands at just 6%. The most likely scoreline from our model is 2-0, which occurs with a 12% probability. Rīgas FS has a strong expected goals figure of 2.81 compared to Tukums' 0.69, indicating a significant attacking advantage.
Rīgas FS is currently in decent form with a record of W-D-W-D-W-D, while Tukums has struggled recently, recording L-D-L-W-L-L. The model suggests a high chance for Over 2.5 goals at 68% and a 47% likelihood for both teams to score. However, if Tukums can improve their performance, they might disrupt the expected outcome.
Rīgas FS vs Tukums: model vs market
| Source | Rīgas FS | Draw | Tukums |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 80% | 14% | 6% |
| Market | 84% | 11% | 5% |
| Published | 83% | 12% | 6% |
| Edge | -3% | +3% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.80 vs 0.69.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.15, recorded — the top price across the 5 books we record, each at its own last update.
Rīgas FS vs Tukums odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Rīgas FS, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-14.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rīgas FS | 1.07 | 1.07 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 8.10 | 8.10 | +0.00 |
| Tukums | 16.50 | 16.50 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Rīgas FS and Tukums expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.49
- Attack rating (Rīgas FS / Tukums)
- 1.35 / 0.66
- Defence rating (Rīgas FS / Tukums)
- 0.82 / 1.27
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Rīgas FS vs Tukums score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Rīgas FS goals. Columns: Tukums goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Rīgas FS vs Tukums goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 47%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Rīgas FS vs Tukums
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rīgas FS | 83% | 1.21 |
| Draw | 12% | 8.55 | |
| Tukums | 6% | 18.00 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68% | 1.48 |
| Under 2.5 | 32% | 3.10 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47% | 2.11 |
| No | 53% | 1.90 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Rīgas FS or draw) | 94% | 1.06 |
| 12 (either side) | 88% | 1.13 | |
| X2 (draw or Tukums) | 17% | 5.80 | |
| Handicap -1 | Rīgas FS win by 2+ | 61% | 1.64 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Rīgas FS and Tukums recent form
Rīgas FS
3W 3D 0L
Tukums
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Rīgas FS at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 10-4-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 3.07
- Goals against / match
- 0.93
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 15
- They have won 24 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They average 3.1 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
- They have kept 15 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 8 matches.
- They have converted 10 of 11 penalties (91%).
Tukums away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-4-11
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.07
- Goals against / match
- 2.47
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 15
- They have won 5 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 31 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Rīgas FS at home only, Tukums away only.
Rīgas FS vs Tukums head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: Rīgas FS 7 · draws 0 · Tukums 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | Tukums | 0-1 | Rīgas FS | Virsliga |
| 2026-05-25 | Rīgas FS | 3-1 | Tukums | Virsliga |
| 2026-04-13 | Tukums | 1-2 | Rīgas FS | Virsliga |
| 2025-10-19 | Tukums | 2-4 | Rīgas FS | Virsliga |
| 2025-07-26 | Rīgas FS | 6-2 | Tukums | Virsliga |
| 2025-05-25 | Tukums | 2-5 | Rīgas FS | Virsliga |
| 2025-04-09 | Rīgas FS | 2-0 | Tukums | Virsliga |
Other Matchday 33 fixtures
- Grobiņa vs Ogre United 2026-10-17
- FK Liepaja v FS Jelgava — match page 2026-10-18
- Riga vs Super Nova — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- BFC Daugavpils vs Auda 2026-10-19
Before and after this match
- Rīgas FS, previous: Rīgas FS vs Super Nova prediction
- Tukums, previous: Tukums vs Riga: odds and pick