FK Liepaja vs FS Jelgava preview
In the Virsliga fixture between FK Liepaja and FS Jelgava, the 1X2 probabilities show FK Liepaja at 43%, while FS Jelgava sits at 30%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% chance according to our model. FK Liepaja has an expected goals figure of 1.61, compared to FS Jelgava's 1.11, indicating a stronger attacking performance.
However, FK Liepaja's recent form includes 4 matches without a win, with 3 draws and 1 loss, which could impact their performance. FS Jelgava, on the other hand, has won 2 of their last 3 matches. Both teams to score has a 55% probability, and Over 2.5 goals stands at 51%, suggesting potential for a more open game.
FK Liepaja vs FS Jelgava: model vs market
| Source | FK Liepaja | Draw | FS Jelgava |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48% | 27% | 25% |
| Market | 53% | 25% | 22% |
| Published | 52% | 25% | 23% |
| Edge | -6% | +3% | +3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.61 vs 1.11.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.78, recorded — the top price across the 5 books we record, each at its own last update.
FK Liepaja vs FS Jelgava odds movement
Median bookmaker price on FK Liepaja, 5 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| FK Liepaja | 2.20 | 1.68 | -0.52 |
| Draw | 3.30 | 3.65 | +0.35 |
| FS Jelgava | 2.93 | 4.05 | +1.12 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
FK Liepaja and FS Jelgava expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.72
- Attack rating (FK Liepaja / FS Jelgava)
- 0.94 / 0.89
- Defence rating (FK Liepaja / FS Jelgava)
- 0.97 / 1.04
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FK Liepaja vs FS Jelgava score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FK Liepaja goals. Columns: FS Jelgava goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FK Liepaja vs FS Jelgava goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FK Liepaja vs FS Jelgava
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FK Liepaja | 52% | 1.92 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.97 | |
| FS Jelgava | 23% | 4.37 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51% | 1.95 |
| Under 2.5 | 49% | 2.05 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.82 |
| No | 45% | 2.22 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FK Liepaja or draw) | 77% | 1.30 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or FS Jelgava) | 48% | 2.08 | |
| Handicap -1 | FK Liepaja win by 2+ | 26% | 3.90 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
FK Liepaja and FS Jelgava recent form
FK Liepaja
1W 3D 2L
FS Jelgava
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FK Liepaja at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-3-4
- Win rate
- 53%
- Goals for / match
- 1.87
- Goals against / match
- 1.13
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 15
- They have won 12 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 31 matches.
- They have converted 10 of 10 penalties (100%).
FS Jelgava away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-6-6
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.31
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 16
- They have won 8 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 15 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
League matches this season before kick-off: FK Liepaja at home only, FS Jelgava away only.
FK Liepaja vs FS Jelgava head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: FK Liepaja 4 · draws 3 · FS Jelgava 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 | FS Jelgava | 0-2 | FK Liepaja | Virsliga |
| 2026-05-26 | FS Jelgava | 1-1 | FK Liepaja | Virsliga |
| 2026-04-12 | FK Liepaja | 1-1 | FS Jelgava | Virsliga |
| 2025-10-25 | FK Liepaja | 2-2 | FS Jelgava | Virsliga |
| 2025-08-02 | FS Jelgava | 1-2 | FK Liepaja | Virsliga |
| 2025-05-30 | FS Jelgava | 0-1 | FK Liepaja | Virsliga |
| 2025-04-14 | FK Liepaja | 1-0 | FS Jelgava | Virsliga |
Other Matchday 33 fixtures
- Grobiņa vs Ogre United 2026-10-17
- Riga vs Super Nova — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- BFC Daugavpils vs Auda 2026-10-19
- Rīgas FS v Tukums — match page 2026-10-19
Before and after this match
- FK Liepaja, previous: FK Liepaja vs Auda: odds and pick
- FS Jelgava, previous: Rīgas FS v FS Jelgava analysis