Grobiņa vs Ogre United preview
In the upcoming match between Grobiņa and Ogre United, the 1X2 probabilities show Grobiņa at 42% to win, while both a draw and an Ogre United victory sit at 29%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 10% chance according to our model. The expected goals are 1.43 for Grobiņa and 1.14 for Ogre United, indicating a tighter contest.
Both teams to score sits at 53%, suggesting a decent chance for goals from both sides. However, Grobiņa's recent form shows 2 draws and 3 losses in their last 5 matches, which could impact their performance. Ogre United is also struggling, with 5 games without a win. This uncertainty in form could lead to a different outcome than predicted.
Grobiņa vs Ogre United: model vs market
| Source | Grobiņa | Draw | Ogre United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41% | 29% | 30% |
| Market | 54% | 25% | 21% |
| Published | 51% | 26% | 23% |
| Edge | -13% | +4% | +8% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.82, recorded — the top price across the 5 books we record, each at its own last update.
Grobiņa vs Ogre United odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Grobiņa, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-13.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grobiņa | 1.85 | 1.67 | -0.18 |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.64 | +0.04 |
| Ogre United | 3.68 | 4.20 | +0.52 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Grobiņa and Ogre United expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.52
- Attack rating (Grobiņa / Ogre United)
- 0.63 / 0.80
- Defence rating (Grobiņa / Ogre United)
- 1.12 / 1.35
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Grobiņa vs Ogre United score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Grobiņa goals. Columns: Ogre United goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Grobiņa vs Ogre United goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 52%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Grobiņa vs Ogre United
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Grobiņa | 51% | 1.97 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.87 | |
| Ogre United | 23% | 4.27 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46% | 2.17 |
| Under 2.5 | 54% | 1.86 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.92 |
| No | 48% | 2.09 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Grobiņa or draw) | 77% | 1.31 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Ogre United) | 49% | 2.03 | |
| Handicap -1 | Grobiņa win by 2+ | 20% | 4.98 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Grobiņa and Ogre United recent form
Grobiņa
1W 2D 3L
Ogre United
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Grobiņa at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-6-6
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 0.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.27
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 15
- They have won 5 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 15 of 32 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Ogre United away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-13
- Win rate
- 12%
- Goals for / match
- 0.81
- Goals against / match
- 2.88
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 16
- They have won 4 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 32 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Grobiņa at home only, Ogre United away only.
Grobiņa vs Ogre United head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Grobiņa 0 · draws 3 · Ogre United 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | Grobiņa | 2-2 | Ogre United | Virsliga |
| 2026-05-25 | Ogre United | 1-1 | Grobiņa | Virsliga |
| 2026-04-13 | Ogre United | 1-1 | Grobiņa | Virsliga |
Other Matchday 33 fixtures
- FK Liepaja v FS Jelgava — match page 2026-10-18
- Riga vs Super Nova — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- BFC Daugavpils vs Auda 2026-10-19
- Rīgas FS v Tukums — match page 2026-10-19
Before and after this match
- Grobiņa, previous: Super Nova vs Grobiņa prediction
- Ogre United, previous: Ogre United – BFC Daugavpils, 2026-10-11