FK Crvena Zvezda vs Mladost Lucani preview
In the Serbia Super Liga fixture, FK Crvena Zvezda has a 69% probability to win against Mladost Lucani, who stands at just 10%. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, with a 14% chance of occurring. FK Crvena Zvezda averages 2.06 expected goals, while Mladost Lucani has only 0.67.
However, the match could differ from expectations if Mladost Lucani manages to score, as there is a 43% chance for both teams to score. Additionally, with a recent form of W-W-W-D-W-W for FK Crvena Zvezda and W-L-W-L-W-W for Mladost Lucani, surprises can happen in football. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty.
FK Crvena Zvezda vs Mladost Lucani: model vs market
| Source | FK Crvena Zvezda | Draw | Mladost Lucani |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 69% | 22% | 9% |
| Market | 86% | 10% | 4% |
| Published | 82% | 13% | 6% |
| Edge | -17% | +12% | +5% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.92 vs 0.57.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.10, recorded — the top price across the 5 books we record, each at its own last update.
FK Crvena Zvezda vs Mladost Lucani odds movement
Median bookmaker price on FK Crvena Zvezda, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-14.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| FK Crvena Zvezda | 1.08 | 1.08 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 9.50 | 9.50 | +0.00 |
| Mladost Lucani | 21.00 | 21.00 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
FK Crvena Zvezda and Mladost Lucani expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.49
- Attack rating (FK Crvena Zvezda / Mladost Lucani)
- 1.40 / 0.82
- Defence rating (FK Crvena Zvezda / Mladost Lucani)
- 0.61 / 0.90
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FK Crvena Zvezda vs Mladost Lucani score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FK Crvena Zvezda goals. Columns: Mladost Lucani goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FK Crvena Zvezda vs Mladost Lucani goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 38%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FK Crvena Zvezda vs Mladost Lucani
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FK Crvena Zvezda | 82% | 1.23 |
| Draw | 13% | 7.81 | |
| Mladost Lucani | 6% | 17.83 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45% | 2.21 |
| Under 2.5 | 55% | 1.83 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 38% | 2.64 |
| No | 62% | 1.61 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FK Crvena Zvezda or draw) | 94% | 1.06 |
| 12 (either side) | 87% | 1.15 | |
| X2 (draw or Mladost Lucani) | 18% | 5.43 | |
| Handicap -1 | FK Crvena Zvezda win by 2+ | 43% | 2.31 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
FK Crvena Zvezda and Mladost Lucani recent form
FK Crvena Zvezda
5W 1D 0L
Mladost Lucani
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FK Crvena Zvezda at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 3.17
- Goals against / match
- 0.33
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 6
- They have won 9 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They average 3.2 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
Mladost Lucani away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: FK Crvena Zvezda at home only, Mladost Lucani away only.
FK Crvena Zvezda vs Mladost Lucani head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: FK Crvena Zvezda 2 · draws 0 · Mladost Lucani 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-20 | FK Crvena Zvezda | 4-0 | Mladost Lucani | Serbia Super Liga |
| 2025-08-15 | Mladost Lucani | 1-4 | FK Crvena Zvezda | Serbia Super Liga |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
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- Vojvodina v Radnicki 1923 — match page 2026-10-17
- Novi Pazar vs IMT Novi Beograd 2026-10-17
- Železničar Pančevo vs FK Partizan 2026-10-17
- Macva vs OFK Beograd — team news & stats 2026-10-17
Before and after this match
- FK Crvena Zvezda, previous: FC Lugano v FK Crvena Zvezda analysis
- FK Crvena Zvezda, next: FK Crvena Zvezda vs FC Copenhagen: odds and pick
- Mladost Lucani, previous: Mladost Lucani – OFK Beograd, 2026-10-12