Radnik Surdulica vs Radnicki NIS preview
In the Serbia Super Liga fixture, Radnik Surdulica has a 50% chance to win against Radnicki NIS, who has a 23% chance. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 11% probability. Both teams to score stands at 52%, indicating a slight chance that both sides may find the net.
Radnik Surdulica's expected goals are 1.59, while Radnicki NIS has a lower figure of 1.01. Recent form shows Radnik Surdulica with L-D-D-D-W-L and Radnicki NIS with L-L-W-L-D-L. This context suggests that Radnik Surdulica may have the upper hand, but their recent performances could lead to unexpected results.
Radnik Surdulica vs Radnicki NIS: model vs market
| Source | Radnik Surdulica | Draw | Radnicki NIS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50% | 27% | 23% |
| Market | 43% | 28% | 28% |
| Published | 45% | 28% | 27% |
| Edge | +6% | -1% | -6% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.59 vs 1.01.
- The market prices Radnik Surdulica below the model: +6.4 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.20, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Radnik Surdulica vs Radnicki NIS odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Radnik Surdulica, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-14.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Radnik Surdulica | 2.10 | 2.10 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.22 | 3.22 | +0.00 |
| Radnicki NIS | 3.20 | 3.20 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Radnik Surdulica and Radnicki NIS expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.61
- Attack rating (Radnik Surdulica / Radnicki NIS)
- 0.94 / 0.73
- Defence rating (Radnik Surdulica / Radnicki NIS)
- 1.20 / 1.12
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Radnik Surdulica vs Radnicki NIS score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Radnik Surdulica goals. Columns: Radnicki NIS goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Radnik Surdulica vs Radnicki NIS goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 52%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Radnik Surdulica vs Radnicki NIS
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Radnik Surdulica | 45% | 2.23 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.57 | |
| Radnicki NIS | 27% | 3.70 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48% | 2.07 |
| Under 2.5 | 52% | 1.93 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.93 |
| No | 48% | 2.08 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Radnik Surdulica or draw) | 73% | 1.37 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Radnicki NIS) | 55% | 1.82 | |
| Handicap -1 | Radnik Surdulica win by 2+ | 27% | 3.74 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Radnik Surdulica and Radnicki NIS recent form
Radnik Surdulica
1W 3D 2L
Radnicki NIS
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Radnik Surdulica at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-3-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.83
- Goals against / match
- 1.17
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Radnicki NIS away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-4
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 0.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.17
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 10 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Radnik Surdulica at home only, Radnicki NIS away only.
Radnik Surdulica vs Radnicki NIS head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Radnik Surdulica 2 · draws 4 · Radnicki NIS 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-08 | Radnik Surdulica | 2-2 | Radnicki NIS | Serbia Super Liga |
| 2025-10-03 | Radnicki NIS | 4-2 | Radnik Surdulica | Serbia Super Liga |
| 2024-04-21 | Radnicki NIS | 1-0 | Radnik Surdulica | Super Liga |
| 2024-03-03 | Radnicki NIS | 0-3 | Radnik Surdulica | Super Liga |
| 2023-09-22 | Radnik Surdulica | 0-0 | Radnicki NIS | Super Liga |
| 2023-04-27 | Radnik Surdulica | 1-0 | Radnicki NIS | Super Liga |
| 2023-02-18 | Radnicki NIS | 0-0 | Radnik Surdulica | Super Liga |
| 2022-08-21 | Radnik Surdulica | 1-3 | Radnicki NIS | Super Liga |
| 2021-11-28 | Radnicki NIS | 3-0 | Radnik Surdulica | Super Liga |
| 2021-07-31 | Radnik Surdulica | 1-1 | Radnicki NIS | Super Liga |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Cukaricki v Zemun — match page 2026-10-17
- Vojvodina v Radnicki 1923 — match page 2026-10-17
- FK Crvena Zvezda vs Mladost Lucani 2026-10-17
- Novi Pazar vs IMT Novi Beograd 2026-10-17
- Železničar Pančevo vs FK Partizan 2026-10-17
- Macva vs OFK Beograd — team news & stats 2026-10-17
Before and after this match
- Radnik Surdulica, previous: IMT Novi Beograd v Radnik Surdulica analysis
- Radnicki NIS, previous: Radnicki NIS v Vojvodina analysis