IMT Novi Beograd vs Radnik Surdulica: model vs market
| Source | IMT Novi Beograd | Draw | Radnik Surdulica |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56% | 28% | 16% |
| Market | 51% | 27% | 22% |
| Published | 52% | 27% | 21% |
| Edge | +6% | 0% | -6% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.57 vs 0.74.
- The market prices IMT Novi Beograd below the model: +5.6 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.90, recorded — the top price across the 5 books we record, each at its own last update.
IMT Novi Beograd vs Radnik Surdulica odds movement
Median bookmaker price on IMT Novi Beograd, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| IMT Novi Beograd | 1.80 | 1.83 | +0.03 |
| Draw | 3.40 | 3.40 | +0.00 |
| Radnik Surdulica | 4.20 | 4.15 | -0.05 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
IMT Novi Beograd and Radnik Surdulica expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.31
- Attack rating (IMT Novi Beograd / Radnik Surdulica)
- 0.82 / 1.03
- Defence rating (IMT Novi Beograd / Radnik Surdulica)
- 0.63 / 1.25
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
IMT Novi Beograd vs Radnik Surdulica score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: IMT Novi Beograd goals. Columns: Radnik Surdulica goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
IMT Novi Beograd vs Radnik Surdulica goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 43%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for IMT Novi Beograd vs Radnik Surdulica
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | IMT Novi Beograd | 52% | 1.93 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.67 | |
| Radnik Surdulica | 21% | 4.81 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 41% | 2.46 |
| Under 2.5 | 59% | 1.69 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43% | 2.35 |
| No | 57% | 1.74 | |
| Double chance | 1X (IMT Novi Beograd or draw) | 79% | 1.26 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Radnik Surdulica) | 48% | 2.08 | |
| Handicap -1 | IMT Novi Beograd win by 2+ | 31% | 3.25 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
IMT Novi Beograd and Radnik Surdulica recent form
IMT Novi Beograd
1W 3D 2L
Radnik Surdulica
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
IMT Novi Beograd at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.25
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Radnik Surdulica away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: IMT Novi Beograd at home only, Radnik Surdulica away only.
IMT Novi Beograd vs Radnik Surdulica head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: IMT Novi Beograd 0 · draws 1 · Radnik Surdulica 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-02 | IMT Novi Beograd | 0-0 | Radnik Surdulica | Serbia Super Liga |
| 2025-09-26 | Radnik Surdulica | 2-0 | IMT Novi Beograd | Serbia Super Liga |
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