Updated

Serbia Super Liga · Matchday 11

Mladost Lucani vs OFK Beograd

· Stadion Mladost, Lucani· Referee L. Lukic

Full time0 – 0

Alin prediction was Mladost Lucani to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Mladost LucaniDrawOFK Beograd

Mladost Lucani vs OFK Beograd: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceMladost LucaniDrawOFK Beograd
Model57%23%20%
Market33%29%38%
Published39%28%33%
Edge+6%-1%-4%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.02 vs 1.14.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Mladost Lucani below our published probability: +5.9 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Mladost Lucani vs OFK Beograd odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Mladost Lucani, 16 snapshots since 2026-10-05.

Opened 2.55Now 2.75 +0.20
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Mladost Lucani2.552.75+0.20
Draw3.253.12-0.13
OFK Beograd2.572.42-0.15

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Mladost Lucani and OFK Beograd expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.02Mladost Lucani
1.14OFK Beograd
Total expected goals
3.15
Attack rating (Mladost Lucani / OFK Beograd)
0.91 / 1.00
Defence rating (Mladost Lucani / OFK Beograd)
0.99 / 1.45

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Mladost Lucani vs OFK Beograd score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.2% 3.9% 2.8% 1.0% 0.4% 1 7.6% 10.8% 5.6% 2.1% 0.8% 2 8.7% 9.9% 5.6% 2.1% 0.8% 3 5.8% 6.6% 3.8% 1.4% 0.5% 4+ 4.7% 5.3% 3.0% 1.1% 0.4%

Rows: Mladost Lucani goals. Columns: OFK Beograd goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Mladost Lucani vs OFK Beograd goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 83%
Over 2.5 61%
Over 3.5 39%
Both teams to score
60%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Mladost Lucani vs OFK Beograd

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Mladost Lucani39%2.56
Draw28%3.61
OFK Beograd33%3.01
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.561%1.64
Under 2.539%2.57
Both teams to scoreYes60%1.67
No40%2.49
Double chance1X (Mladost Lucani or draw)67%1.50
12 (either side)72%1.38
X2 (draw or OFK Beograd)61%1.64
Handicap -1Mladost Lucani win by 2+35%2.89
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Mladost Lucani and OFK Beograd recent form

Mladost Lucani 4W 0D 2L
OFK Beograd 1W 1D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Mladost Lucani at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-2-0
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.50
Goals against / match
0.75
Clean sheets
2 of 4
  • They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.

OFK Beograd away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-4
Win rate
20%
Goals for / match
1.20
Goals against / match
2.60
Clean sheets
0 of 5
  • They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Mladost Lucani at home only, OFK Beograd away only.

Expected lineups

Mladost Lucani lineup

  1. 17 A. Varjačić
  2. 32 B. Jovičić
  3. 29 D. Jovančić
  4. 37 F. Mladenović
  5. 39 J. Uzuegbunam
  6. 22 João
  7. 7 N. Andrić
  8. 30 N. Ćirković
  9. 1 S. Stamenković
  10. 33 V. Jovanović

Bench: Petar Bojić, O. Krsmanovic, M. Joksimović, T. Bondarenko, V. Marković, J. Ćirić, D. Djokic, M. Cvetković, Ž. Samčović

OFK Beograd lineup

  1. 4 A. Pavlovic
  2. 19 D. Rankovic
  3. 3 E. Addo
  4. 9 Ethan Hoard
  5. 27 H. Aderoju
  6. 14 M. Momčilović
  7. 15 N. Maraš
  8. 97 N. Stojišić
  9. 2 S. Despotovski
  10. 6 S. Peña
  11. 47 S. Stojković

Bench: T. Wouter, T. De Barr, M. Bešić, H. Touré, J. Šljivić, M. Rodić, U. Stojanović, Vuk Draškić, A. Vukičević, M. Gobeljić, Aleksa Vasilic

Mladost Lucani vs OFK Beograd head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Mladost Lucani 0 · draws 3 · OFK Beograd 2.

Mladost LucaniDrawsOFK Beograd
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-02-01Mladost Lucani0-0OFK BeogradSerbia Super Liga
2025-08-23OFK Beograd1-1Mladost LucaniSerbia Super Liga
2025-05-11OFK Beograd1-0Mladost LucaniSuper Liga
2024-11-24OFK Beograd0-0Mladost LucaniSuper Liga
2024-07-20Mladost Lucani1-2OFK BeogradSuper Liga

Before and after this match