Mladost Lucani vs OFK Beograd: model vs market
| Source | Mladost Lucani | Draw | OFK Beograd |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 57% | 23% | 20% |
| Market | 36% | 28% | 35% |
| Published | 41% | 27% | 31% |
| Edge | +21% | -5% | -16% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.03 vs 1.13.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Mladost Lucani below the model: +21.2 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.66, recorded — the top price across the 5 books we record, each at its own last update.
Mladost Lucani vs OFK Beograd odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Mladost Lucani, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-05.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mladost Lucani | 2.55 | 2.55 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.25 | 3.25 | +0.00 |
| OFK Beograd | 2.57 | 2.60 | +0.03 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Mladost Lucani and OFK Beograd expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.16
- Attack rating (Mladost Lucani / OFK Beograd)
- 0.92 / 1.00
- Defence rating (Mladost Lucani / OFK Beograd)
- 0.99 / 1.45
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Mladost Lucani vs OFK Beograd score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Mladost Lucani goals. Columns: OFK Beograd goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Mladost Lucani vs OFK Beograd goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 60%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Mladost Lucani vs OFK Beograd
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mladost Lucani | 41% | 2.41 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.70 | |
| OFK Beograd | 31% | 3.18 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61% | 1.63 |
| Under 2.5 | 39% | 2.58 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60% | 1.68 |
| No | 40% | 2.48 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Mladost Lucani or draw) | 69% | 1.46 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or OFK Beograd) | 59% | 1.71 | |
| Handicap -1 | Mladost Lucani win by 2+ | 35% | 2.84 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Mladost Lucani and OFK Beograd recent form
Mladost Lucani
4W 0D 2L
OFK Beograd
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Mladost Lucani at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
OFK Beograd away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-4
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 2.60
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Mladost Lucani at home only, OFK Beograd away only.
Mladost Lucani vs OFK Beograd head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Mladost Lucani 0 · draws 2 · OFK Beograd 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-01 | Mladost Lucani | 0-0 | OFK Beograd | Serbia Super Liga |
| 2025-08-23 | OFK Beograd | 1-1 | Mladost Lucani | Serbia Super Liga |
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