Macva vs OFK Beograd preview
In the Serbia Super Liga match between Macva and OFK Beograd, the 1X2 probabilities show OFK Beograd at 41% and Macva at 30%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which occurs with a 7% probability. The expected goals for Macva are 1.46, while OFK Beograd has 1.19.
Both teams to score has a 55% chance, and Over 2.5 goals is at 49%. Recent form indicates Macva has drawn twice and lost three times, while OFK Beograd has drawn once and lost four times. This could affect the outcome if either team improves their performance on the day. The confidence grade is C, suggesting uncertainty in the predictions.
Macva vs OFK Beograd: model vs market
| Source | Macva | Draw | OFK Beograd |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42% | 28% | 29% |
| Market | 27% | 28% | 45% |
| Published | 30% | 28% | 41% |
| Edge | +16% | 0% | -16% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.10, recorded — the top price across the 5 books we record, each at its own last update.
Macva vs OFK Beograd odds movement
Median bookmaker price on OFK Beograd, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-13.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Macva | 3.48 | 3.48 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.25 | 3.25 | +0.00 |
| OFK Beograd | 2.05 | 2.05 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Macva and OFK Beograd expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.64
- Attack rating (Macva / OFK Beograd)
- 0.73 / 0.91
- Defence rating (Macva / OFK Beograd)
- 1.13 / 1.32
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Macva vs OFK Beograd score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Macva goals. Columns: OFK Beograd goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Macva vs OFK Beograd goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Macva vs OFK Beograd
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Macva | 30% | 3.28 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.52 | |
| OFK Beograd | 41% | 2.43 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49% | 2.03 |
| Under 2.5 | 51% | 1.97 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.83 |
| No | 45% | 2.20 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Macva or draw) | 59% | 1.70 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or OFK Beograd) | 70% | 1.44 | |
| Handicap -1 | OFK Beograd win by 2+ | 13% | 7.94 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Macva and OFK Beograd recent form
Macva
1W 3D 2L
OFK Beograd
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Macva at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 0.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
OFK Beograd away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-4
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.17
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Macva at home only, OFK Beograd away only.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Radnik Surdulica vs Radnicki NIS — team news & stats 2026-10-16
- Cukaricki v Zemun — match page 2026-10-17
- Vojvodina v Radnicki 1923 — match page 2026-10-17
- FK Crvena Zvezda vs Mladost Lucani 2026-10-17
- Novi Pazar vs IMT Novi Beograd 2026-10-17
- Železničar Pančevo vs FK Partizan 2026-10-17
Before and after this match
- Macva, previous: Cukaricki – Macva, 2026-10-10
- OFK Beograd, previous: Mladost Lucani – OFK Beograd, 2026-10-12