Novi Pazar vs IMT Novi Beograd preview
In the Serbia Super Liga fixture, Novi Pazar faces IMT Novi Beograd with 35% probability for a Novi Pazar win and 34% for an IMT Novi Beograd win. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which occurs 13% of the time in our model. Both teams to score sits at 31%, while Over 2.5 goals is only at 22%.
Novi Pazar's expected goals are 0.73, while IMT Novi Beograd has slightly higher expected goals at 0.87. Recent form shows Novi Pazar with L-D-D-W-D-L and IMT Novi Beograd with W-D-L-D-W-L. With a confidence grade of C, the match could see surprises that affect the outcome.
Novi Pazar vs IMT Novi Beograd: model vs market
| Source | Novi Pazar | Draw | IMT Novi Beograd |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27% | 38% | 35% |
| Market | 37% | 29% | 34% |
| Published | 35% | 31% | 34% |
| Edge | -10% | +9% | +1% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.57, recorded — the top price across the 5 books we record, each at its own last update.
Novi Pazar vs IMT Novi Beograd odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Novi Pazar, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-14.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Novi Pazar | 2.47 | 2.47 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.20 | 3.20 | +0.00 |
| IMT Novi Beograd | 2.70 | 2.70 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Novi Pazar and IMT Novi Beograd expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.60
- Attack rating (Novi Pazar / IMT Novi Beograd)
- 0.81 / 0.81
- Defence rating (Novi Pazar / IMT Novi Beograd)
- 0.94 / 0.59
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Novi Pazar vs IMT Novi Beograd score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Novi Pazar goals. Columns: IMT Novi Beograd goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Novi Pazar vs IMT Novi Beograd goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 31%
- No goals (0–0)
- 21%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Novi Pazar vs IMT Novi Beograd
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Novi Pazar | 35% | 2.89 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.23 | |
| IMT Novi Beograd | 34% | 2.91 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 22% | 4.61 |
| Under 2.5 | 78% | 1.28 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 31% | 3.18 |
| No | 69% | 1.46 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Novi Pazar or draw) | 66% | 1.52 |
| 12 (either side) | 69% | 1.45 | |
| X2 (draw or IMT Novi Beograd) | 65% | 1.53 | |
| Handicap -1 | Novi Pazar win by 2+ | 8% | 11.94 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Novi Pazar and IMT Novi Beograd recent form
Novi Pazar
1W 3D 2L
IMT Novi Beograd
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Novi Pazar at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.17
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
IMT Novi Beograd away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Novi Pazar at home only, IMT Novi Beograd away only.
Novi Pazar vs IMT Novi Beograd head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Novi Pazar 1 · draws 0 · IMT Novi Beograd 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-07 | IMT Novi Beograd | 2-3 | Novi Pazar | Serbia Super Liga |
| 2025-08-04 | Novi Pazar | 1-2 | IMT Novi Beograd | Serbia Super Liga |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Radnik Surdulica vs Radnicki NIS — team news & stats 2026-10-16
- Cukaricki v Zemun — match page 2026-10-17
- Vojvodina v Radnicki 1923 — match page 2026-10-17
- FK Crvena Zvezda vs Mladost Lucani 2026-10-17
- Železničar Pančevo vs FK Partizan 2026-10-17
- Macva vs OFK Beograd — team news & stats 2026-10-17
Before and after this match
- Novi Pazar, previous: FK Partizan vs Novi Pazar prediction
- IMT Novi Beograd, previous: IMT Novi Beograd v Radnik Surdulica analysis