FK Partizan vs Novi Pazar: model vs market
| Source | FK Partizan | Draw | Novi Pazar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53% | 23% | 24% |
| Market | 59% | 22% | 19% |
| Published | 58% | 22% | 20% |
| Edge | -6% | +1% | +5% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.08 vs 1.37.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.61, recorded — the top price across the 5 books we record, each at its own last update.
FK Partizan vs Novi Pazar odds movement
Median bookmaker price on FK Partizan, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-05.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| FK Partizan | 1.57 | 1.57 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 4.20 | 4.20 | +0.00 |
| Novi Pazar | 4.90 | 4.93 | +0.03 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
FK Partizan and Novi Pazar expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.46
- Attack rating (FK Partizan / Novi Pazar)
- 1.40 / 0.90
- Defence rating (FK Partizan / Novi Pazar)
- 1.34 / 0.97
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FK Partizan vs Novi Pazar score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FK Partizan goals. Columns: Novi Pazar goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FK Partizan vs Novi Pazar goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 66%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FK Partizan vs Novi Pazar
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FK Partizan | 58% | 1.74 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.49 | |
| Novi Pazar | 20% | 4.96 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67% | 1.49 |
| Under 2.5 | 33% | 3.04 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66% | 1.51 |
| No | 34% | 2.97 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FK Partizan or draw) | 80% | 1.25 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or Novi Pazar) | 42% | 2.36 | |
| Handicap -1 | FK Partizan win by 2+ | 32% | 3.11 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
FK Partizan and Novi Pazar recent form
FK Partizan
2W 1D 3L
Novi Pazar
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FK Partizan at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-3
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Novi Pazar away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: FK Partizan at home only, Novi Pazar away only.
FK Partizan vs Novi Pazar head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: FK Partizan 3 · draws 0 · Novi Pazar 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | FK Partizan | 2-1 | Novi Pazar | Serbia Super Liga |
| 2026-04-09 | Novi Pazar | 2-3 | FK Partizan | Serbia Super Liga |
| 2025-11-09 | FK Partizan | 2-0 | Novi Pazar | Serbia Super Liga |
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- Cukaricki v Macva — match page 2026-10-10
- IMT Novi Beograd vs Radnik Surdulica — team news & stats 2026-10-10