Zemun vs Železničar Pančevo: model vs market
| Source | Zemun | Draw | Železničar Pančevo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 25% | 29% | 46% |
| Market | 19% | 24% | 56% |
| Published | 21% | 26% | 54% |
| Edge | +5% | +5% | -10% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.43 vs 0.98.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.65, recorded — the top price across the 5 books we record, each at its own last update.
Zemun vs Železničar Pančevo odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Železničar Pančevo, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-05.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zemun | 4.75 | 4.75 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.80 | 3.80 | +0.00 |
| Železničar Pančevo | 1.62 | 1.65 | +0.03 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Zemun and Železničar Pančevo expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.41
- Attack rating (Zemun / Železničar Pančevo)
- 0.68 / 1.02
- Defence rating (Zemun / Železničar Pančevo)
- 1.24 / 0.95
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Zemun vs Železničar Pančevo score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Zemun goals. Columns: Železničar Pančevo goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Zemun vs Železničar Pančevo goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 49%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Zemun vs Železničar Pančevo
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Zemun | 21% | 4.81 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.91 | |
| Železničar Pančevo | 54% | 1.86 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43% | 2.30 |
| Under 2.5 | 57% | 1.77 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49% | 2.05 |
| No | 51% | 1.96 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Zemun or draw) | 46% | 2.16 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Železničar Pančevo) | 79% | 1.26 | |
| Handicap -1 | Železničar Pančevo win by 2+ | 23% | 4.31 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Zemun and Železničar Pančevo recent form
Zemun
0W 2D 4L
Železničar Pančevo
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Zemun at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.60
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 0 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.4 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 9 matches.
Železničar Pančevo away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Zemun at home only, Železničar Pančevo away only.
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