Cukaricki vs Macva: model vs market
| Source | Cukaricki | Draw | Macva |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46% | 30% | 24% |
| Market | 69% | 20% | 11% |
| Published | 64% | 22% | 14% |
| Edge | -23% | +11% | +13% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.36 vs 0.91.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.38, recorded — the top price across the 5 books we record, each at its own last update.
Cukaricki vs Macva odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Cukaricki, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cukaricki | 1.26 | 1.33 | +0.07 |
| Draw | 5.00 | 4.70 | -0.30 |
| Macva | 11.00 | 8.50 | -2.50 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Cukaricki and Macva expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.27
- Attack rating (Cukaricki / Macva)
- 0.81 / 0.64
- Defence rating (Cukaricki / Macva)
- 1.26 / 1.09
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Cukaricki vs Macva score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Cukaricki goals. Columns: Macva goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Cukaricki vs Macva goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 46%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Cukaricki vs Macva
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cukaricki | 64% | 1.57 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.49 | |
| Macva | 14% | 7.09 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 40% | 2.52 |
| Under 2.5 | 60% | 1.66 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46% | 2.18 |
| No | 54% | 1.84 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Cukaricki or draw) | 86% | 1.16 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or Macva) | 36% | 2.75 | |
| Handicap -1 | Cukaricki win by 2+ | 23% | 4.43 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Cukaricki and Macva recent form
Cukaricki
1W 1D 4L
Macva
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Cukaricki at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Macva away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-4
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.40
- Goals against / match
- 2.40
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Cukaricki at home only, Macva away only.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
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- Mladost Lucani vs OFK Beograd 2026-10-10
- Radnicki NIS v Vojvodina — match page 2026-10-10
- Zemun vs Železničar Pančevo — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Radnicki 1923 vs FK Crvena Zvezda 2026-10-10
- IMT Novi Beograd vs Radnik Surdulica — team news & stats 2026-10-10