FC Copenhagen vs Aarhus preview
In the Denmark Superliga, FC Copenhagen faces Aarhus with a 61% probability for Copenhagen to win and a most likely scoreline of 2-1 at 9%. The model also suggests a strong chance for Over 2.5 goals at 68% and both teams to score at 59%.
However, FC Copenhagen's recent form shows a loss followed by five wins, while Aarhus has mixed results with two wins, two draws, and a loss in their last five matches. Aarhus has won both of the last two encounters against Copenhagen, which could influence the outcome. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
FC Copenhagen vs Aarhus: model vs market
| Source | FC Copenhagen | Draw | Aarhus |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 69% | 18% | 12% |
| Market | 57% | 23% | 20% |
| Published | 60% | 21% | 18% |
| Edge | +12% | -4% | -8% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.52 vs 1.01.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices FC Copenhagen below the model: +12.1 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.70, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
FC Copenhagen vs Aarhus odds movement
Median bookmaker price on FC Copenhagen, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Copenhagen | 1.53 | 1.62 | +0.09 |
| Draw | 4.40 | 4.12 | -0.28 |
| Aarhus | 5.15 | 4.60 | -0.55 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
FC Copenhagen and Aarhus expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.53
- Attack rating (FC Copenhagen / Aarhus)
- 1.40 / 1.19
- Defence rating (FC Copenhagen / Aarhus)
- 0.59 / 1.10
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FC Copenhagen vs Aarhus score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FC Copenhagen goals. Columns: Aarhus goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FC Copenhagen vs Aarhus goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 59%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FC Copenhagen vs Aarhus
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Copenhagen | 60% | 1.66 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.67 | |
| Aarhus | 18% | 5.49 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68% | 1.46 |
| Under 2.5 | 32% | 3.17 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59% | 1.69 |
| No | 41% | 2.45 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FC Copenhagen or draw) | 82% | 1.22 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.27 | |
| X2 (draw or Aarhus) | 40% | 2.52 | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Copenhagen win by 2+ | 48% | 2.06 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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FC Copenhagen and Aarhus recent form
FC Copenhagen
5W 0D 1L
Aarhus
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FC Copenhagen at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 8 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Aarhus away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 0 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- 57% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: FC Copenhagen at home only, Aarhus away only.
FC Copenhagen vs Aarhus head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: FC Copenhagen 0 · draws 0 · Aarhus 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | Aarhus | 2-0 | FC Copenhagen | Denmark Superliga |
| 2025-08-08 | FC Copenhagen | 2-3 | Aarhus | Denmark Superliga |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- AC Horsens vs Randers FC 2026-10-16
- Sonderjyske v Silkeborg — match page 2026-10-18
- Lyngby vs FC Nordsjaelland — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Odense v Brondby — match page 2026-10-18
- Viborg vs FC Midtjylland 2026-10-19
Before and after this match
- FC Copenhagen, previous: FC Copenhagen vs SC Braga prediction
- FC Copenhagen, next: FK Crvena Zvezda vs FC Copenhagen: odds and pick
- Aarhus, previous: Gent vs Aarhus prediction
- Aarhus, next: Aarhus – Egnatia Rrogozhinë, 2026-10-22