Viborg vs FC Midtjylland preview
In the Denmark Superliga fixture between Viborg and FC Midtjylland, the 1X2 probabilities show FC Midtjylland at 45% to win, compared to Viborg's 30% and a 25% chance for a draw. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 10% probability. The expected goals indicate Viborg at 1.20 and FC Midtjylland at 1.76, suggesting a competitive match.
Both teams to score is at 59%, while Over 2.5 goals stands at 57%. Viborg's recent form shows 3 wins and 2 losses, while FC Midtjylland is on a strong run with 5 wins and 1 draw in their last 6 matches. However, Viborg has not won any of the last 4 head-to-head meetings, which could impact their performance.
Viborg vs FC Midtjylland: model vs market
| Source | Viborg | Draw | FC Midtjylland |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 25% | 26% | 49% |
| Market | 34% | 25% | 41% |
| Published | 32% | 25% | 43% |
| Edge | -9% | +1% | +8% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.76 vs 1.20.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices FC Midtjylland below the model: +8.1 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.36, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Viborg vs FC Midtjylland odds movement
Median bookmaker price on FC Midtjylland, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Viborg | 3.02 | 2.74 | -0.28 |
| Draw | 3.40 | 3.72 | +0.32 |
| FC Midtjylland | 2.21 | 2.25 | +0.04 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Viborg and FC Midtjylland expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.96
- Attack rating (Viborg / FC Midtjylland)
- 1.11 / 1.46
- Defence rating (Viborg / FC Midtjylland)
- 0.83 / 0.66
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Viborg vs FC Midtjylland score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Viborg goals. Columns: FC Midtjylland goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Viborg vs FC Midtjylland goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 59%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Viborg vs FC Midtjylland
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Viborg | 32% | 3.16 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.98 | |
| FC Midtjylland | 43% | 2.31 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57% | 1.76 |
| Under 2.5 | 43% | 2.31 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59% | 1.70 |
| No | 41% | 2.43 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Viborg or draw) | 57% | 1.76 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or FC Midtjylland) | 68% | 1.46 | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Midtjylland win by 2+ | 28% | 3.62 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Viborg and FC Midtjylland recent form
Viborg
3W 1D 2L
FC Midtjylland
4W 2D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Viborg at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-1
- Win rate
- 80%
- Goals for / match
- 2.20
- Goals against / match
- 0.80
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
FC Midtjylland away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-0
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.60
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.6 on the road.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Viborg at home only, FC Midtjylland away only.
Viborg vs FC Midtjylland head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Viborg 0 · draws 3 · FC Midtjylland 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-04 | FC Midtjylland | 3-3 | Viborg | Denmark Superliga |
| 2026-03-22 | Viborg | 1-1 | FC Midtjylland | Denmark Superliga |
| 2025-12-07 | Viborg | 3-3 | FC Midtjylland | Denmark Superliga |
| 2025-09-20 | FC Midtjylland | 2-0 | Viborg | Denmark Superliga |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- AC Horsens vs Randers FC 2026-10-16
- Sonderjyske v Silkeborg — match page 2026-10-18
- Lyngby vs FC Nordsjaelland — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Odense v Brondby — match page 2026-10-18
- FC Copenhagen vs Aarhus — team news & stats 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Viborg, previous: Randers FC – Viborg, 2026-10-11
- FC Midtjylland, previous: Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs FC Midtjylland prediction
- FC Midtjylland, next: FC Midtjylland vs St. Truiden prediction