FC Midtjylland vs St. Truiden Prediction & Betting Tips 22/10/2026

FC Midtjylland vs St. Truiden preview

In the UEFA Europa Conference League match between FC Midtjylland and St. Truiden, the 1X2 probabilities show FC Midtjylland at 82% to win, while St. Truiden sits at just 6%. The most likely scoreline is 3-0, with an 8% chance, indicating a strong expectation for FC Midtjylland's dominance.

The model suggests an 80% likelihood for Over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance for both teams to score. However, St. Truiden's recent form, with 4 losses in their last 6 matches, could lead to a different outcome than predicted. FC Midtjylland's expected goals stand at 3.35 compared to St. Truiden's 0.96, further emphasizing the disparity in form and performance.

FC Midtjylland vs St. Truiden: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	FC Midtjylland	Draw	St. Truiden
Model	82%	11%	6%
Market	—	—	—
Published	82%	11%	6%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.35 vs 0.96.
Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

FC Midtjylland and St. Truiden expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

3.35FC Midtjylland

0.96St. Truiden

Total expected goals: 4.31
Attack rating (FC Midtjylland / St. Truiden): 1.57 / 1.16
Defence rating (FC Midtjylland / St. Truiden): 0.70 / 1.30

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

FC Midtjylland vs St. Truiden score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 1.8% 0.9% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 1 4.1% 4.7% 2.1% 0.7% 0.2% 2 7.6% 7.2% 3.5% 1.1% 0.3% 3 8.5% 8.1% 3.9% 1.2% 0.4% 4+ 16.6% 15.8% 7.6% 2.4% 0.7%

Rows: FC Midtjylland goals. Columns: St. Truiden goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

FC Midtjylland vs St. Truiden goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 98%

Over 1.5 93%

Over 2.5 80%

Over 3.5 62%

Both teams to score: 60%
No goals (0–0): 2%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for FC Midtjylland vs St. Truiden

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	FC Midtjylland	82%	1.22
	Draw	11%	8.71
	St. Truiden	6%	15.45
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	80%	1.24
	Under 2.5	20%	5.10
Both teams to score	Yes	60%	1.67
	No	40%	2.49
Double chance	1X (FC Midtjylland or draw)	94%	1.07
	12 (either side)	89%	1.13
	X2 (draw or St. Truiden)	18%	5.57
Handicap -1	FC Midtjylland win by 2+	66%	1.52
	Push (exactly one goal)	16%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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