Aarhus vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë preview
Aarhus faces Egnatia Rrogozhinë with 29% win probability for Aarhus compared to 48% for Egnatia. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals each at 70%. This suggests a high-scoring match could be expected.
However, Aarhus' recent form shows 1 draw and 5 losses in their last 6 matches, which could impact their performance. Egnatia Rrogozhinë has a stronger recent record with 4 wins in their last 6 games. The confidence grade is C, indicating that while the numbers suggest a certain outcome, there is room for unpredictability.
Aarhus vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë: model vs market
| Source | Aarhus | Draw | Egnatia Rrogozhinë |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35% | 24% | 41% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 35% | 24% | 41% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Aarhus and Egnatia Rrogozhinë expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.58
- Attack rating (Aarhus / Egnatia Rrogozhinë)
- 1.27 / 1.35
- Defence rating (Aarhus / Egnatia Rrogozhinë)
- 1.17 / 0.82
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Aarhus vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Aarhus goals. Columns: Egnatia Rrogozhinë goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Aarhus vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 70%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Aarhus vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aarhus | 35% | 2.86 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.22 | |
| Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 41% | 2.42 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 | 31% | 3.27 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70% | 1.42 |
| No | 30% | 3.36 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Aarhus or draw) | 59% | 1.70 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Egnatia Rrogozhinë) | 65% | 1.54 | |
| Handicap -1 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë win by 2+ | 23% | 4.38 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Aarhus and Egnatia Rrogozhinë recent form
Aarhus
2W 2D 2L
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Other League Stage - 2 fixtures
- FC Nordsjaelland vs CSKA Sofia — team news & stats 2026-10-22
- Monaco v Freiburg — match page 2026-10-22
- Ajax v Atalanta — match page 2026-10-22
- SC Braga v Gent — match page 2026-10-22
- FC Midtjylland vs St. Truiden 2026-10-22
- Lincoln Red Imps FC vs Twente — team news & stats 2026-10-22
- FC Thun vs HNK Hajduk Split — team news & stats 2026-10-22
- Borac Banja Luka vs KuPS — team news & stats 2026-10-22
Before and after this match
- Aarhus, previous: FC Copenhagen v Aarhus analysis
- Aarhus, next: Roskilde v Aarhus analysis
- Egnatia Rrogozhinë, previous: Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs Vllaznia Shkodër: odds and pick