FC Thun vs HNK Hajduk Split Prediction & Betting Tips 22/10/2026

FC Thun vs HNK Hajduk Split preview

In the UEFA Europa Conference League match between FC Thun and HNK Hajduk Split, the 1X2 probabilities show HNK Hajduk Split at 53% and FC Thun at 27%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which aligns with the expected goals of 1.86 for FC Thun and 2.56 for HNK Hajduk Split.

The high percentages for Over 2.5 goals at 82% and both teams to score at 79% suggest a dynamic match. However, FC Thun's recent form of L-W-L-L-L-D could impact their performance against a more consistent HNK Hajduk Split, who have won 4 of their last 6 matches.

FC Thun vs HNK Hajduk Split: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	FC Thun	Draw	HNK Hajduk Split
Model	27%	20%	53%
Market	—	—	—
Published	27%	20%	53%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.56 vs 1.86.
Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

FC Thun and HNK Hajduk Split expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.86FC Thun

2.56HNK Hajduk Split

Total expected goals: 4.42
Attack rating (FC Thun / HNK Hajduk Split): 1.23 / 1.32
Defence rating (FC Thun / HNK Hajduk Split): 1.64 / 0.91

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

FC Thun vs HNK Hajduk Split score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 1.8% 2.5% 3.9% 3.4% 4.0% 1 1.7% 6.3% 7.3% 6.3% 7.4% 2 2.1% 5.3% 6.8% 5.8% 6.9% 3 1.3% 3.3% 4.2% 3.6% 4.3% 4+ 0.9% 2.3% 3.0% 2.6% 3.0%

Rows: FC Thun goals. Columns: HNK Hajduk Split goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

FC Thun vs HNK Hajduk Split goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 98%

Over 1.5 94%

Over 2.5 82%

Over 3.5 64%

Both teams to score: 79%
No goals (0–0): 2%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for FC Thun vs HNK Hajduk Split

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	FC Thun	27%	3.65
	Draw	20%	5.05
	HNK Hajduk Split	53%	1.89
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	82%	1.22
	Under 2.5	18%	5.49
Both teams to score	Yes	79%	1.27
	No	21%	4.66
Double chance	1X (FC Thun or draw)	47%	2.12
	12 (either side)	80%	1.25
	X2 (draw or HNK Hajduk Split)	73%	1.38
Handicap -1	HNK Hajduk Split win by 2+	34%	2.93
	Push (exactly one goal)	19%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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