SC Braga vs Gent preview
In the UEFA Europa Conference League fixture between SC Braga and Gent, the 1X2 probabilities show SC Braga at 27%, a draw at 37%, and Gent at 36%. The most likely scoreline is 0-0 with a 20% chance, indicating a low-scoring match could be expected.
Both teams to score has a 33% probability, and Over 2.5 goals is at just 24%. SC Braga's expected goals stand at 0.76, while Gent's is slightly higher at 0.92. This suggests that while Gent has the edge in expected scoring, the overall predictions lean towards a tight contest, which could challenge any expectations for higher goal totals.
SC Braga vs Gent: model vs market
| Source | SC Braga | Draw | Gent |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27% | 37% | 36% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 27% | 37% | 36% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
SC Braga and Gent expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.68
- Attack rating (SC Braga / Gent)
- 0.85 / 1.10
- Defence rating (SC Braga / Gent)
- 0.71 / 0.54
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
SC Braga vs Gent score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: SC Braga goals. Columns: Gent goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
SC Braga vs Gent goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 33%
- No goals (0–0)
- 20%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for SC Braga vs Gent
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | SC Braga | 27% | 3.66 |
| Draw | 37% | 2.72 | |
| Gent | 36% | 2.78 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 24% | 4.20 |
| Under 2.5 | 76% | 1.31 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 33% | 2.99 |
| No | 67% | 1.50 | |
| Double chance | 1X (SC Braga or draw) | 64% | 1.56 |
| 12 (either side) | 63% | 1.58 | |
| X2 (draw or Gent) | 73% | 1.38 | |
| Handicap -1 | Gent win by 2+ | 13% | 7.42 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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SC Braga and Gent recent form
SC Braga
3W 1D 2L
Gent
5W 1D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
SC Braga at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.33
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
Gent away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: SC Braga at home only, Gent away only.
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Before and after this match
- SC Braga, previous: FC Copenhagen vs SC Braga prediction
- Gent, previous: Rochefort vs Gent prediction