Ajax vs Atalanta preview
In the UEFA Europa Conference League fixture between Ajax and Atalanta, Ajax has an 81% chance of winning compared to Atalanta's 7%. The most likely scoreline is 3-1, with Ajax expected to score 3.44 goals and Atalanta only 1.05. With 83% probability for Over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, there is a strong indication of a high-scoring match.
However, Ajax's recent form shows two draws in their last three matches, which could impact their performance. Atalanta has shown some resilience with two wins in their last three games, suggesting they might pose a challenge. If Ajax underperforms or Atalanta capitalizes on their chances, the outcome could differ from the predictions.
Ajax vs Atalanta: model vs market
| Source | Ajax | Draw | Atalanta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 81% | 12% | 7% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 81% | 12% | 7% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.44 vs 1.05.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Ajax and Atalanta expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.50
- Attack rating (Ajax / Atalanta)
- 1.83 / 0.87
- Defence rating (Ajax / Atalanta)
- 1.02 / 1.14
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Ajax vs Atalanta score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Ajax goals. Columns: Atalanta goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Ajax vs Atalanta goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 63%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Ajax vs Atalanta
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ajax | 81% | 1.23 |
| Draw | 12% | 8.68 | |
| Atalanta | 7% | 14.05 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 83% | 1.21 |
| Under 2.5 | 17% | 5.74 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63% | 1.58 |
| No | 37% | 2.74 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Ajax or draw) | 93% | 1.08 |
| 12 (either side) | 88% | 1.13 | |
| X2 (draw or Atalanta) | 19% | 5.37 | |
| Handicap -1 | Ajax win by 2+ | 65% | 1.53 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Ajax and Atalanta recent form
Ajax
3W 2D 1L
Atalanta
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Ajax at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 4.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 5 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 3.7 goals per match.
- They average 4.0 goals per game at home against 3.3 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Atalanta away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Ajax at home only, Atalanta away only.
Other League Stage - 2 fixtures
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- Monaco v Freiburg — match page 2026-10-22
- SC Braga v Gent — match page 2026-10-22
- FC Midtjylland vs St. Truiden 2026-10-22
- Aarhus vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë 2026-10-22
- Lincoln Red Imps FC vs Twente — team news & stats 2026-10-22
- FC Thun vs HNK Hajduk Split — team news & stats 2026-10-22
- Borac Banja Luka vs KuPS — team news & stats 2026-10-22
Before and after this match
- Ajax, previous: Groningen v Ajax analysis
- Atalanta, previous: AC Milan – Atalanta, 2026-10-18