Monaco vs Freiburg Prediction & Betting Tips 22/10/2026

Monaco vs Freiburg preview

Monaco faces Freiburg with 35% chances for a Monaco win, 25% for a draw, and 40% for a Freiburg victory. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 9% probability. The model predicts Over 2.5 goals at 65% and both teams to score at 67%.

Monaco has an expected goals figure of 1.60, while Freiburg stands at 1.73. Freiburg's recent form shows they have won 5 out of their last 6 matches. Monaco, on the other hand, has drawn 2 of their last 6. These factors could influence the outcome, making it possible for either team to perform differently than expected.

Why this pick: Monaco vs Freiburg

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Monaco 10, Freiburg 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

MonacoFreiburg

1.21 xG per 90 1.70

1.21 npxG per 90 1.70

12.1 PPDA 13.1

6.4 Deep completions per 90 6.5

1.25 xPTS per 90 1.67

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Monaco vs Freiburg: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Monaco	Draw	Freiburg
Model	35%	25%	40%
Market	—	—	—
Published	35%	25%	40%
Edge	—	—	—

Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Monaco and Freiburg expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.60Monaco

1.73Freiburg

Total expected goals: 3.33
Attack rating (Monaco / Freiburg): 1.08 / 1.42
Defence rating (Monaco / Freiburg): 1.03 / 0.89

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Monaco vs Freiburg score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.6% 5.2% 5.4% 3.1% 2.0% 1 4.7% 10.9% 8.6% 5.0% 3.2% 2 4.6% 7.9% 6.9% 4.0% 2.5% 3 2.4% 4.2% 3.6% 2.1% 1.3% 4+ 1.4% 2.4% 2.1% 1.2% 0.8%

Rows: Monaco goals. Columns: Freiburg goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Monaco vs Freiburg goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%

Over 1.5 85%

Over 2.5 65%

Over 3.5 43%

Both teams to score: 67%
No goals (0–0): 5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Monaco vs Freiburg

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Monaco	35%	2.88
	Draw	25%	4.02
	Freiburg	40%	2.47
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	65%	1.55
	Under 2.5	35%	2.83
Both teams to score	Yes	67%	1.50
	No	33%	3.00
Double chance	1X (Monaco or draw)	60%	1.68
	12 (either side)	75%	1.33
	X2 (draw or Freiburg)	65%	1.53
Handicap -1	Freiburg win by 2+	22%	4.62
	Push (exactly one goal)	19%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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