Rochefort vs Gent Prediction & Betting Tips 18/10/2026

Rochefort vs Gent preview

In the Belgium Cup fixture, Rochefort faces Gent with a 1X2 probability of 18% for Rochefort, 24% for a draw, and 58% for Gent. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which aligns with expected goals of 1.02 for Rochefort and 1.97 for Gent.

Both teams to score stands at 56%, and there's a 57% chance of Over 2.5 goals. Rochefort's recent form shows 3 wins and 2 losses, while Gent has 6 consecutive wins. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty. A Rochefort win or a draw would disrupt the forecasted outcome.

Rochefort vs Gent: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Rochefort	Draw	Gent
Model	18%	24%	58%
Market	—	—	—
Published	18%	24%	58%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.97 vs 1.02.
Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Rochefort and Gent expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.02Rochefort

1.97Gent

Total expected goals: 2.98
Attack rating (Rochefort / Gent): 1.07 / 0.92
Defence rating (Rochefort / Gent): 1.33 / 0.48

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Rochefort vs Gent score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.1% 8.9% 9.8% 6.4% 4.9% 1 4.1% 11.1% 10.0% 6.5% 5.0% 2 2.6% 5.2% 5.1% 3.3% 2.6% 3 0.9% 1.8% 1.7% 1.1% 0.9% 4+ 0.3% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3%

Rows: Rochefort goals. Columns: Gent goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Rochefort vs Gent goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%

Over 1.5 81%

Over 2.5 57%

Over 3.5 35%

Both teams to score: 56%
No goals (0–0): 6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Rochefort vs Gent

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Rochefort	18%	5.53
	Draw	24%	4.24
	Gent	58%	1.71
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	57%	1.74
	Under 2.5	43%	2.34
Both teams to score	Yes	56%	1.79
	No	44%	2.27
Double chance	1X (Rochefort or draw)	42%	2.40
	12 (either side)	76%	1.31
	X2 (draw or Gent)	82%	1.22
Handicap -1	Gent win by 2+	36%	2.81
	Push (exactly one goal)	23%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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