Excelsior Virton vs Genk preview
Excelsior Virton faces Genk with a 46% chance of winning compared to Genk's 27%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which occurs in 9% of simulations. The expected goals suggest Excelsior Virton will score 1.61 while Genk is projected to net 1.21.
There is a 53% probability of Over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance for both teams to score. However, recent form shows Excelsior Virton has mixed results with L-W-D-W-L-W, while Genk has a more stable pattern with W-L-D-D-W-D. This could influence the match outcome and the accuracy of the predictions.
Excelsior Virton vs Genk: model vs market
| Source | Excelsior Virton | Draw | Genk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46% | 27% | 27% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 46% | 27% | 27% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.61 vs 1.21.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Excelsior Virton and Genk expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.82
- Attack rating (Excelsior Virton / Genk)
- 1.12 / 0.94
- Defence rating (Excelsior Virton / Genk)
- 0.80 / 0.73
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Excelsior Virton vs Genk score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Excelsior Virton goals. Columns: Genk goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Excelsior Virton vs Genk goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Excelsior Virton vs Genk
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Excelsior Virton | 46% | 2.19 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.71 | |
| Genk | 27% | 3.64 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53% | 1.87 |
| Under 2.5 | 47% | 2.15 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.75 |
| No | 43% | 2.34 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Excelsior Virton or draw) | 73% | 1.38 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Genk) | 54% | 1.84 | |
| Handicap -1 | Excelsior Virton win by 2+ | 24% | 4.13 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Excelsior Virton and Genk recent form
Excelsior Virton
3W 1D 2L
Genk
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
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Before and after this match
- Excelsior Virton, previous: Excelsior Virton v Sporting Hasselt analysis
- Genk, previous: Genk vs Kortrijk prediction