Excelsior Virton vs Sporting Hasselt: model vs market
| Source | Excelsior Virton | Draw | Sporting Hasselt |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48% | 27% | 25% |
| Market | 36% | 26% | 38% |
| Published | 39% | 26% | 35% |
| Edge | +12% | +1% | -12% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.64 vs 1.15.
- The market prices Excelsior Virton below the model: +11.5 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.61, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Excelsior Virton vs Sporting Hasselt odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Excelsior Virton, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Excelsior Virton | 2.54 | 2.49 | -0.04 |
| Draw | 3.50 | 3.44 | -0.06 |
| Sporting Hasselt | 2.45 | 2.39 | -0.06 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Excelsior Virton and Sporting Hasselt expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.78
- Attack rating (Excelsior Virton / Sporting Hasselt)
- 1.15 / 1.07
- Defence rating (Excelsior Virton / Sporting Hasselt)
- 0.78 / 0.96
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Excelsior Virton vs Sporting Hasselt score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Excelsior Virton goals. Columns: Sporting Hasselt goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Excelsior Virton vs Sporting Hasselt goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 56%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Excelsior Virton vs Sporting Hasselt
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Excelsior Virton | 39% | 2.56 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.80 | |
| Sporting Hasselt | 35% | 2.89 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53% | 1.90 |
| Under 2.5 | 47% | 2.11 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56% | 1.78 |
| No | 44% | 2.28 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Excelsior Virton or draw) | 65% | 1.53 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Sporting Hasselt) | 61% | 1.64 | |
| Handicap -1 | Excelsior Virton win by 2+ | 26% | 3.89 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Excelsior Virton and Sporting Hasselt recent form
Excelsior Virton
3W 1D 2L
Sporting Hasselt
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Excelsior Virton at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
Sporting Hasselt away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Excelsior Virton at home only, Sporting Hasselt away only.
Excelsior Virton vs Sporting Hasselt head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Excelsior Virton 0 · draws 1 · Sporting Hasselt 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-23 | Excelsior Virton | 3-3 | Sporting Hasselt | Belgium Cup |
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