K. Lierse S.K. vs Francs Borains Prediction & Betting Tips 10/10/2026

K. Lierse S.K. vs Francs Borains: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	K. Lierse S.K.	Draw	Francs Borains
Model	26%	29%	45%
Market	33%	28%	40%
Published	31%	28%	41%
Edge	-7%	+1%	+5%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.46 vs 1.06.
Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
The market prices Francs Borains below the model: +5.5 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.41, recorded 2026-10-06 — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.

K. Lierse S.K. vs Francs Borains odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Francs Borains, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-06.

Opened 2.29Now 2.29 +0.00

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
K. Lierse S.K.	2.75	2.75	+0.00
Draw	3.26	3.26	+0.00
Francs Borains	2.29	2.29	+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

K. Lierse S.K. and Francs Borains expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.06K. Lierse S.K.

1.46Francs Borains

Total expected goals: 2.52
Attack rating (K. Lierse S.K. / Francs Borains): 0.73 / 1.08
Defence rating (K. Lierse S.K. / Francs Borains): 0.99 / 0.97

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

K. Lierse S.K. vs Francs Borains score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 9.3% 10.5% 8.6% 4.2% 2.1% 1 7.3% 13.7% 9.1% 4.4% 2.2% 2 4.5% 6.6% 4.8% 2.3% 1.2% 3 1.6% 2.3% 1.7% 0.8% 0.4% 4+ 0.5% 0.8% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: K. Lierse S.K. goals. Columns: Francs Borains goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

K. Lierse S.K. vs Francs Borains goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 91%

Over 1.5 73%

Over 2.5 46%

Over 3.5 25%

Both teams to score: 51%
No goals (0–0): 9%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for K. Lierse S.K. vs Francs Borains

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	K. Lierse S.K.	31%	3.21
	Draw	28%	3.58
	Francs Borains	41%	2.45
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	46%	2.17
	Under 2.5	54%	1.85
Both teams to score	Yes	51%	1.95
	No	49%	2.06
Double chance	1X (K. Lierse S.K. or draw)	59%	1.69
	12 (either side)	72%	1.39
	X2 (draw or Francs Borains)	69%	1.45
Handicap -1	Francs Borains win by 2+	23%	4.40
	Push (exactly one goal)	22%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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