Beerschot VA vs Liège: model vs market
| Source | Beerschot VA | Draw | Liège |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 67% | 18% | 15% |
| Market | 64% | 20% | 16% |
| Published | 65% | 20% | 15% |
| Edge | +3% | -2% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.67 vs 1.22.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Beerschot VA below the model: +3.2 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.47, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Beerschot VA vs Liège odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Beerschot VA, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-05.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Beerschot VA | 1.40 | 1.40 | -0.00 |
| Draw | 4.50 | 4.47 | -0.03 |
| Liège | 5.80 | 5.72 | -0.08 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Beerschot VA and Liège expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.90
- Attack rating (Beerschot VA / Liège)
- 1.35 / 0.99
- Defence rating (Beerschot VA / Liège)
- 0.90 / 1.33
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Beerschot VA vs Liège score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Beerschot VA goals. Columns: Liège goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Beerschot VA vs Liège goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 66%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Beerschot VA vs Liège
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Beerschot VA | 65% | 1.54 |
| Draw | 20% | 5.13 | |
| Liège | 15% | 6.49 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75% | 1.34 |
| Under 2.5 | 25% | 3.94 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66% | 1.51 |
| No | 34% | 2.98 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Beerschot VA or draw) | 85% | 1.18 |
| 12 (either side) | 80% | 1.24 | |
| X2 (draw or Liège) | 35% | 2.86 | |
| Handicap -1 | Beerschot VA win by 2+ | 47% | 2.11 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Beerschot VA and Liège recent form
Beerschot VA
5W 0D 1L
Liège
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Beerschot VA at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 3.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Liège away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Beerschot VA at home only, Liège away only.
Beerschot VA vs Liège head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Beerschot VA 3 · draws 0 · Liège 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | Liège | 0-1 | Beerschot VA | Challenger Pro League |
| 2025-11-28 | Beerschot VA | 3-0 | Liège | Challenger Pro League |
| 2024-10-30 | Beerschot VA | 3-1 | Liège | Belgium Cup |
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