Patro Eisden vs KRC Genk II: model vs market
| Source | Patro Eisden | Draw | KRC Genk II |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33% | 23% | 44% |
| Market | 54% | 24% | 23% |
| Published | 48% | 24% | 28% |
| Edge | -21% | 0% | +21% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.78, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Patro Eisden vs KRC Genk II odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Patro Eisden, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-05.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patro Eisden | 1.72 | 1.69 | -0.03 |
| Draw | 4.09 | 3.85 | -0.24 |
| KRC Genk II | 4.08 | 3.98 | -0.10 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Patro Eisden and KRC Genk II expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.60
- Attack rating (Patro Eisden / KRC Genk II)
- 0.88 / 1.16
- Defence rating (Patro Eisden / KRC Genk II)
- 1.22 / 1.27
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Patro Eisden vs KRC Genk II score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Patro Eisden goals. Columns: KRC Genk II goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Patro Eisden vs KRC Genk II goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 70%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Patro Eisden vs KRC Genk II
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Patro Eisden | 48% | 2.07 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.25 | |
| KRC Genk II | 28% | 3.56 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70% | 1.43 |
| Under 2.5 | 30% | 3.31 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70% | 1.42 |
| No | 30% | 3.36 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Patro Eisden or draw) | 72% | 1.39 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or KRC Genk II) | 52% | 1.94 | |
| Handicap -1 | Patro Eisden win by 2+ | 16% | 6.09 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 | First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 | 100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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| 4 | 200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Patro Eisden and KRC Genk II recent form
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Patro Eisden at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
KRC Genk II away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 3.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Patro Eisden at home only, KRC Genk II away only.
Patro Eisden vs KRC Genk II head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Patro Eisden 1 · draws 1 · KRC Genk II 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-06 | Patro Eisden | 4-4 | KRC Genk II | Challenger Pro League |
| 2025-09-26 | KRC Genk II | 1-4 | Patro Eisden | Challenger Pro League |
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