Dender vs Club Brugge II preview
Dender hosts Club Brugge II with a 60% probability of winning according to the model. The expected goals suggest Dender could score around 1.72, while Club Brugge II is expected to net about 1.11. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with a 54% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance for both teams to score.
However, Dender's recent form shows one loss in their last six matches, while Club Brugge II has won three of their last six. This recent performance could influence the outcome. The confidence grade is C, indicating that while Dender is favored, the result is not guaranteed.
Dender vs Club Brugge II: model vs market
| Source | Dender | Draw | Club Brugge II |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51% | 26% | 23% |
| Market | 63% | 21% | 16% |
| Published | 60% | 22% | 18% |
| Edge | -12% | +5% | +7% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.72 vs 1.11.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.50, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Dender vs Club Brugge II odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Dender, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dender | 1.46 | 1.43 | -0.03 |
| Draw | 4.50 | 4.33 | -0.17 |
| Club Brugge II | 5.54 | 5.50 | -0.04 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Dender and Club Brugge II expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.83
- Attack rating (Dender / Club Brugge II)
- 0.90 / 1.12
- Defence rating (Dender / Club Brugge II)
- 0.73 / 1.28
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Dender vs Club Brugge II score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Dender goals. Columns: Club Brugge II goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Dender vs Club Brugge II goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 56%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Dender vs Club Brugge II
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Dender | 60% | 1.67 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.53 | |
| Club Brugge II | 18% | 5.53 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54% | 1.86 |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 2.17 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56% | 1.78 |
| No | 44% | 2.28 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Dender or draw) | 82% | 1.22 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.28 | |
| X2 (draw or Club Brugge II) | 40% | 2.49 | |
| Handicap -1 | Dender win by 2+ | 28% | 3.53 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Dender and Club Brugge II recent form
Dender
5W 0D 1L
Club Brugge II
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Dender at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 3
- They have won 5 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Club Brugge II away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 3.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Dender at home only, Club Brugge II away only.
Dender vs Club Brugge II head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Dender 3 · draws 0 · Club Brugge II 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-29 | Club Brugge II | 0-1 | Dender | Challenger Pro League |
| 2023-11-10 | Dender | 2-0 | Club Brugge II | Challenger Pro League |
| 2022-11-25 | Club Brugge II | 4-1 | Dender | Challenger Pro League |
| 2022-10-29 | Dender | 3-2 | Club Brugge II | Challenger Pro League |
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