Heist vs Antwerp Prediction & Betting Tips 17/10/2026

Heist vs Antwerp preview

In the Belgium Cup fixture between Heist and Antwerp, the 1X2 probabilities show Heist at 78% and Antwerp at just 7%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-0, with an 11% chance. Heist's expected goals sit at 2.80, while Antwerp's are only 0.80, indicating a significant disparity in attacking potential.

However, Antwerp's recent form, with 5 losses and 1 draw in their last 6 matches, could influence the outcome. Although there is a 70% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance for both teams to score, if Antwerp manages to improve their performance, it could lead to a different result than expected.

Heist vs Antwerp: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Heist	Draw	Antwerp
Model	78%	14%	7%
Market	—	—	—
Published	78%	14%	7%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.80 vs 0.80.
Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Heist and Antwerp expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.80Heist

0.80Antwerp

Total expected goals: 3.60
Attack rating (Heist / Antwerp): 1.14 / 0.76
Defence rating (Heist / Antwerp): 0.65 / 1.25

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Heist vs Antwerp score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.3% 1.6% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 1 7.0% 6.7% 2.4% 0.7% 0.2% 2 10.7% 8.6% 3.4% 0.9% 0.2% 3 10.0% 8.0% 3.2% 0.9% 0.2% 4+ 13.9% 11.1% 4.4% 1.2% 0.3%

Rows: Heist goals. Columns: Antwerp goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Heist vs Antwerp goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%

Over 1.5 88%

Over 2.5 70%

Over 3.5 49%

Both teams to score: 52%
No goals (0–0): 3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Heist vs Antwerp

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Heist	78%	1.28
	Draw	14%	6.91
	Antwerp	7%	13.64
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	70%	1.43
	Under 2.5	30%	3.31
Both teams to score	Yes	52%	1.91
	No	48%	2.10
Double chance	1X (Heist or draw)	93%	1.08
	12 (either side)	86%	1.17
	X2 (draw or Antwerp)	22%	4.59
Handicap -1	Heist win by 2+	59%	1.70
	Push (exactly one goal)	19%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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