RAAL La Louvière vs Liège preview
In the Belgium Cup fixture between RAAL La Louvière and Liège, the 1X2 probabilities suggest a close contest with RAAL La Louvière at 35%, a draw at 24%, and Liège leading at 41%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with an 8% chance. The expected goals indicate RAAL La Louvière at 1.74 and Liège at 1.89, highlighting a competitive matchup.
Both teams to score has a probability of 71%, while Over 2.5 goals stands at 70%. However, recent form shows RAAL La Louvière with three losses in their last five matches, while Liège has two losses in their last five. This could affect the outcome, despite the statistical predictions favoring a higher-scoring game.
RAAL La Louvière vs Liège: model vs market
| Source | RAAL La Louvière | Draw | Liège |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35% | 24% | 41% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 35% | 24% | 41% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
RAAL La Louvière and Liège expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.63
- Attack rating (RAAL La Louvière / Liège)
- 0.72 / 0.95
- Defence rating (RAAL La Louvière / Liège)
- 1.23 / 1.21
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
RAAL La Louvière vs Liège score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: RAAL La Louvière goals. Columns: Liège goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
RAAL La Louvière vs Liège goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 71%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for RAAL La Louvière vs Liège
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | RAAL La Louvière | 35% | 2.83 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.25 | |
| Liège | 41% | 2.43 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70% | 1.42 |
| Under 2.5 | 30% | 3.36 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71% | 1.41 |
| No | 29% | 3.43 | |
| Double chance | 1X (RAAL La Louvière or draw) | 59% | 1.70 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Liège) | 65% | 1.55 | |
| Handicap -1 | Liège win by 2+ | 23% | 4.38 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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RAAL La Louvière and Liège recent form
RAAL La Louvière
1W 1D 4L
Liège
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
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Before and after this match
- RAAL La Louvière, previous: RAAL La Louvière v Club Brugge KV analysis
- Liège, previous: Beerschot VA – Liège, 2026-10-10