OH Leuven vs Francs Borains Prediction & Betting Tips 17/10/2026

OH Leuven vs Francs Borains preview

The match between OH Leuven and Francs Borains has a 31% probability for both a win for OH Leuven and a draw, while Francs Borains has a 38% chance of winning. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a probability of 11%. This suggests a close match, but the outcome could change if OH Leuven improves their recent form, which shows 1 draw and 5 losses in their last 6 matches.

In terms of goals, there is a 39% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance for both teams to score. Expected goals are 1.06 for OH Leuven and 1.20 for Francs Borains, indicating a slight edge for the visitors in creating scoring opportunities. If OH Leuven can capitalize on their chances, the match dynamics could shift.

OH Leuven vs Francs Borains: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	OH Leuven	Draw	Francs Borains
Model	31%	31%	38%
Market	—	—	—
Published	31%	31%	38%
Edge	—	—	—

Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

OH Leuven and Francs Borains expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.06OH Leuven

1.20Francs Borains

Total expected goals: 2.26
Attack rating (OH Leuven / Francs Borains): 0.63 / 0.82
Defence rating (OH Leuven / Francs Borains): 0.91 / 0.84

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

OH Leuven vs Francs Borains score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 11.8% 11.2% 7.6% 3.0% 1.2% 1 9.7% 14.6% 8.0% 3.2% 1.3% 2 5.8% 7.0% 4.2% 1.7% 0.7% 3 2.1% 2.5% 1.5% 0.6% 0.2% 4+ 0.7% 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%

Rows: OH Leuven goals. Columns: Francs Borains goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

OH Leuven vs Francs Borains goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 88%

Over 1.5 67%

Over 2.5 39%

Over 3.5 19%

Both teams to score: 47%
No goals (0–0): 12%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for OH Leuven vs Francs Borains

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	OH Leuven	31%	3.25
	Draw	31%	3.20
	Francs Borains	38%	2.63
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	39%	2.54
	Under 2.5	61%	1.65
Both teams to score	Yes	47%	2.13
	No	53%	1.89
Double chance	1X (OH Leuven or draw)	62%	1.61
	12 (either side)	69%	1.45
	X2 (draw or Francs Borains)	69%	1.44
Handicap -1	Francs Borains win by 2+	17%	5.90
	Push (exactly one goal)	21%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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