Union St. Gilloise vs Nijlen preview
In the Belgium Cup fixture between Union St. Gilloise and Nijlen, the 1X2 probabilities show Union St. Gilloise at 60% to win, while Nijlen sits at 19%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% chance of occurring. The expected goals suggest Union St. Gilloise will score 2.33 and Nijlen 1.29.
The model indicates a strong possibility for Over 2.5 goals at 70% and both teams to score at 66%. However, the confidence grade is C, which means unexpected outcomes could arise, particularly if Nijlen improves their recent form, where they have alternated between wins and losses.
Union St. Gilloise vs Nijlen: model vs market
| Source | Union St. Gilloise | Draw | Nijlen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 60% | 21% | 19% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 60% | 21% | 19% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.33 vs 1.29.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Union St. Gilloise and Nijlen expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.62
- Attack rating (Union St. Gilloise / Nijlen)
- 1.32 / 1.31
- Defence rating (Union St. Gilloise / Nijlen)
- 0.61 / 0.89
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Union St. Gilloise vs Nijlen score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Union St. Gilloise goals. Columns: Nijlen goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Union St. Gilloise vs Nijlen goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 66%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Union St. Gilloise vs Nijlen
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Union St. Gilloise | 60% | 1.67 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.80 | |
| Nijlen | 19% | 5.16 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70% | 1.43 |
| Under 2.5 | 30% | 3.34 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66% | 1.51 |
| No | 34% | 2.96 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Union St. Gilloise or draw) | 81% | 1.24 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.26 | |
| X2 (draw or Nijlen) | 40% | 2.49 | |
| Handicap -1 | Union St. Gilloise win by 2+ | 39% | 2.57 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Union St. Gilloise and Nijlen recent form
Union St. Gilloise
5W 1D 0L
Nijlen
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
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Before and after this match
- Union St. Gilloise, previous: Union St. Gilloise vs Real Sociedad: odds and pick
- Union St. Gilloise, next: Union St. Gilloise vs Hapoel Beer Sheva prediction